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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 11 August 15
GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF CRUDE STEEL REACHED A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 1,661M TONNES IN 2014 - VDKI
COALpot.com: Global production of crude steel reached a new all-time high of 1,661m tonnes in 2014, said German Coal Importer Association, in its l ...
Tuesday, 11 August 15
2016 CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 4Q 2015 CLOSING PRICES; BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 10 (0.20%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Monday, 10 August 15
SOUTH KOREAN UTILITY KOMIPO INVITES BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 560,000 Metric Tons (MT) of 4,600kcal/kg NAR c ...
Sunday, 09 August 15
THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS REMAINED WEAK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be buoyant with cape index pushing the BDI.
The BDI was up 10.49% and closed at 1200 points on 7 ...
Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of ...
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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