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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 11 August 15
GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF CRUDE STEEL REACHED A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 1,661M TONNES IN 2014 - VDKI
COALpot.com: Global production of crude steel reached a new all-time high of 1,661m tonnes in 2014, said German Coal Importer Association, in its l ...
Tuesday, 11 August 15
2016 CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 4Q 2015 CLOSING PRICES; BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 10 (0.20%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Monday, 10 August 15
SOUTH KOREAN UTILITY KOMIPO INVITES BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 560,000 Metric Tons (MT) of 4,600kcal/kg NAR c ...
Sunday, 09 August 15
THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS REMAINED WEAK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be buoyant with cape index pushing the BDI.
The BDI was up 10.49% and closed at 1200 points on 7 ...
Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
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