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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 17 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 40 (1.05%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Sunday, 16 August 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADY NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI softened 12.08 per cent to 1055 points this week due to weakening of cape index which was fell 25 per cent week over week to ...
Friday, 14 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING NO MOVEMENT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ ...
Friday, 14 August 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.9 PER CENT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.2 million shor ...
Friday, 14 August 15
CONDITIONS AND COMPLEXITIES IN A TRIPARTITE AGREEMENT: BE SPECIFIC! - INCE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A tripartite agreement reached between the Owners, the Shippers and the Receivers provided that demurrage be paid to the ...
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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