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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 28 August 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING AUGUST 22 ROSE FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.5 million shor ...
Friday, 28 August 15
BANPU STRENGTHENS GROWTH PLAN
Coal Business: Asia-Pacific Synergies Increase Competitiveness for Premium Export Market.
Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) strengthens its ...
Thursday, 27 August 15
RATES FOR CAPES REMAINED ON A FREE FALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Keeping everyone on their toes with the volatility seen in August, the Dry Bulk market undoubtedly remains a steady provider of chall ...
Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of th ...
Wednesday, 26 August 15
2Q'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS NEARLY 4.76 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ 2.20 (-5.13%) p ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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