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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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