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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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