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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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