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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of the oversupply problems of the market. The owner added in its second quarter report that the average spot rates so far in the third quarter are higher than the rates in the first half of 2015, which means that the company’s revenues are expected to improve compared to the two previous quarters. Golden Ocean noted that following two very weak quarters, the third quarter started with more optimism, in particular, for the Capesize segment. With a spot market close to $20,000 per day it was questionable whether it was a structurally damaged market balance due to oversupply. “Then a three step devaluation by the Chinese Central Bank and a very nervous Chinese stock market removed all signs of optimism over a fortnight. With falling commodity prices and growing uncertainty in general, activity among dry bulk charterers is low at present. Short term this could be painful for owners of dry bulk assets, but in a longer term perspective the supply side should repair itself faster than previously anticipated”, Golden Ocean said.
In any case, according to the shipowner, the dry bulk spot market in the second quarter of 2015 did not give owners of dry bulk vessels any relief. “Rates ended up more or less at similar levels as in the pervious quarter and with limited volatility. According to the Baltic Exchange, average earnings for the Supramax segment were $6,766 per day compared to $6,434 per day in the previous quarter and $8,982 per day in the same quarter last year. Capesize vessels were again facing the lowest earnings with an average of $4,600 per day against $4,582 per day the previous quarter and $11,901 per day in the same quarter last year. Panamaxes earned on average $5,183 per day compared to $4,815 during the first quarter and $6,304 in the same quarter in 2014″.
FLEET SUPPLY
According to Golden Ocean though, the low utilization of the dry bulk fleet the first six months of the year has been due to demand issues rather than increased supply. “Actual deliveries for the first six months amounted to 110 Handysize vessels, 159 Handymaxes/Supramaxes, 88 Panamaxes/Kamsarmaxes and 57 Capesize vessels. During the first half of 2015 less than 27 mdwt were delivered. Even though the delivery rate picked up slightly during the month of July it is unlikely that the delivery ratio will exceed 65 per cent of the official order book this year. At the same time scrapping prior the monsoon season in June/July was beating most analysts’ expectations. For the entire sector above 10,000dwt, 300 vessels have been scrapped. The net effect of this is that after seven months into the year there is still zero net fleet growth for Handysize and Capesize”, said Golden Ocean.
The ship owner added that “historically, limited number of vessels will be delivered during the fourth quarter and in spite of fewer removals due to a combination of improved spot market and lower scrap prices, net fleet growth in 2015 will most likely end up at less than 3 per cent of additional capacity. In aggregate the total order book to fleet ratio fell below 18 per cent at the end of the second quarter, which marks the lowest level since 2003. Still many analysts believe that the official order book is bigger than reality. The positive trend on the supply side is definitely needed due to softer demand for dry bulk commodities”.
DRY BULK DEMAND
In terms of demand, Golden Ocean said in its report that “we witnessed a slight improvement in total demand in the second quarter of the year compared to the previous slow quarter. Measured in tonne miles demand for dry bulk commodities grew by one per cent compared to first quarter, but still one per cent lower than same quarter last year. Uncertainty and conflicting information from the most important country for dry bulk transportation is still making the headlines. The devaluation of the renminbi by the Chinese Central Bank took many by surprise. It is not expected that this will have a significant impact on import levels. Compared to the average exchange rate in January this year, the currency is trading 4 per cent lower while the average spot price for iron ore is 15 per cent lower than the January average price. Chinese steel consumption (observed) was 4.3 per cent lower in the second quarter compared to the same quarter last year, but increased by 3.5 per cent compared to the previous quarter. Chinese iron ore imports for the first half the year ended at 453 million mt, followed by a strong 86 million mt in July. This is 15 per cent up from previous month and the highest monthly import figure seen in 2015. It is interesting to note that iron ore inventories remain at relatively low levels and almost 30 million mt lower than same time last year. Australia and Brazil continue taking market share from marginal producers and are up 30 million and 10 million tons, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015. New capacity from both countries is expected to be made available in the coming months represented by Roy Hill in Australia and new production from Vale. Coal imports to China continue to be the most negative contributor to dry bulk demand and are 34 per cent lower year-on-year for the first seven months of 2015. July showed a similar uptick in imports as for iron ore and for the last few weeks Chinas southwestern regions received less rain than usual. As a consequence hydro power production in July fell for the first time since October 2013. Given that China imports only six per cent of the coal it consumes, the sensitivity and uncertainty is substantial. Limited new hydro power capacity will be introduced over the next five years. India’s growth in coal imports is steady, but at a slower pace last two months. In the first half of 2015, the country imported 120 million mt which is almost 30 million mt more than the same period previous year”, Golden Ocean noted.
Ship prices
The soft freight market continued to put downward pressure on asset values for all vessel classes during the second quarter. According to industry sources, prices fell by 7.5 percent to 12.5 percent depending on the country of construction. Asset prices have reacted positively so far in third quarter to the improved spot market freight environment and most analysts are of the opinion that the industry has seen the bottom in this cycle”, the shipowner concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 15 September 15
Q2'16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DIP TO $ 51.10 PER TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR 4Q' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $42.71 PER TON ON 11 SEPT, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.94 per MT (-2.15%) month over month to US$ 42.71 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 14 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED $1.80 PMT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.62 (3.21 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 14 September 15
MOODY'S LOWERS COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON MACRO, INDUSTRY FACTORS
COALspot.com: Moody's Investors Service has lowered its base metal price assumptions for 2015-17 as slowing growth in China, lower oil prices, ...
Sunday, 13 September 15
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI decreased further by 6.51 per cent or 57 points since last Friday and closed at 818 on 11 September 2015 while the cape index ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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