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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 30 June 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 43.45 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decli ...
Monday, 29 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS UP SLIGHTLY MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.57 (1.11%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Monday, 29 June 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.49 per MT (1.08%) month over month to US$ 45.77 per mt. The swap was ...
Saturday, 27 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY EARLIER IN THE WEEK; SOFTEN INTO WEEK'S END
COALspot.com: The freight market remain steady earlier in the week, but towards end of the week BDI and BCI shows some signs of softening.
The ...
Friday, 26 June 15
INDONESIA COAL PRODUCTION FALLS BETWEEN JAN-MAY : JG
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that coal production declined to 166 million tons between January and May, a 19 percent drop ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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