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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 15 July 15
ANY FUTURE IRAN OIL DEAL WILL BOOST SUPPLY FUNDAMENTALS WITH TANKER OWNERS HOPING FROM TEHRAN TO QUICKLY BOOST ITS PRODUCTION
With the Greek “Euro-drama” apparently over, at least for now, Iran’s oil deal still remains elusive, with any potential agreemen ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS MAINTAIN OVERALL NEGATIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.02 per MT (-2.23%) month over month to US$ 44.68 per mt. The swap ...
Tuesday, 14 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS DECLINE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.47 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Monday, 13 July 15
THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SOAR 23 PER CENT TO 24.08 MILLION TONNES AT 12 MAJOR INDIAN PORTS
Import of thermal coal jumped 23 per cent to 24.08 million tonnes at 12 major ports in the first quarter of the fiscal, even as the government cont ...
Monday, 13 July 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET CLOSED ON A POSITIVE TONE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Despite Greece crisis and turmoil in the stock market across the world , the freight market overall was firm and up in all segments t ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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