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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
 On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germany (P5+1), to eliminate Tehran’s nuclear program in return for lifting international oil and financial sanctions. The US-Iran deal is the most important breakthrough in their bilateral relationship since 1979, when the Iranian revolution disturbed their relations. In particular, Iran has agreed not to produce any plutonium enriched weapons and additional heavy water reactors for 15 years. The assurance that Iran is satisfying the deal’s commitments will be granted through an extensive UN inspection and observation under the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). It is discussed that assessments and transparency measures may remain in place for as long as 25 years. Expressly, President Obama stated that “this relief will be phased in. Iran must complete key nuclear steps before it begins to receive sanctions relief.”
The markets are already looking towards the challenges, options and prospects that will emerge with the deal being signed. Notably, oil prices fell due to investors’ expectations of an increase in oil exports from Iran to an already oversupplied market. It is estimated that Iran could supply an extra 200k-400k bpd of crude in 2016 on top of a release of 20-40 million barrels from floating storage. The NIOC Managing Director states that if there is enough demand, it is estimated that production could increase by 500k-600k bpd reaching its pre-sanctions level of 4 million bpd within 6 to 12 months. Furthermore, China’s economy is witnessing a growth slow down, while global oil production is close to record highs and thus traders weigh the risk of oil prices possibly falling further.
Furthermore, the agreement will gradually benefit companies that transport Iranian Oil. Once the EU ban on insuring tankers carrying Iranian crude is lifted, imports to countries such as India and Turkey will be comforted and will promote the purchase of contracted volumes. Iran has traditionally been India’s second-largest supplier of crude oil and the prospect of lifting sanctions will also facilitate Pakistan to complete the Iran-Pakistan pipeline. Moreover, it would again be legal for P&I insurance clubs and companies that cover shipowners for several risks to insure Iranian oil cargoes.
Likewise, it is estimated that lifting petrochemical sanctions will permit $1 billion in exports for Iran. The increase in Iranian supplies of oil and gas would trickle down to Europe’s chemical industry, creating a potential game changer for energy-intensive businesses. A traditional player is coming back into the market and preeminently needs to sell, therefore chemical plants of Europe will definitely benefit. Energy companies from Royal Dutch Shell to BP commented after the deal was signed that they were examining their options in a post-sanctions Iran, where production and export potential could expand with the appropriate investment strategies.
Decades of sanctions have inevitably affected the local population and Iranian political setup. With the prospect of sanctions being lifted, Iran’s economic potential will allow for numerous opportunities not only for Iran but also for the wider region, which will directly translate into an increased influence in the Middle East. More importantly, the deal will have some prompt and long-term influence both on global and regional level. The deal will bring out Iran from international isolation. Nevertheless, Iran will have to wait for almost a year to yield the financial returns of the deal, while the six major world powers will most probably reap the benefits of the lower cost of oil immediately.
By Katerina Restis
Tanker Chartering
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 July 15
INDONESIA'S HBA HITS ALL-TIME LOW OF $59.16 PER METRIC TON IN JULY 2015
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.16 pe ...
Thursday, 16 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINE W-O-W, M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The last few weeks have been rather strenuous for Greece and China, each for their own reasons, affecting most markets around the world. In Greece ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
IRAN OIL RECOVERY TO TAKE YEARS, BUT COULD START IN 2016 - FITCH
Iranian crude oil production is likely to increase in 2016 but will take a number of years to reach its previous peak, Fitch Ratings says.
The ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
SAS TO BUILD 108 KM ROAD FOR COAL IN JAMBI, SAYS JAKARTA POST
Jambi Governor Hasan Basri Agus said on Sunday that mining company PT Sinar Anugerah Sukses (SAS) would develop a 108-kilometer road with a width o ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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