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Friday, 24 July 15
THE IMPACT OF COLLAPSING CHINESE COAL IMPORTS - CLARKSONS
 Global seaborne coal trade is currently projected to drop 1% y-o-y in 2015, which would be the first annual decline in almost three decades. The driving force behind the slump has been a collapse in Chinese seaborne coal imports, which fell 40% y-o-y in the first five months of the year. This month’s Commodity Countdown explores the cause and implications of the drop in Chinese coal import demand.
Global seaborne coal trade is currently projected to drop 1% y-o-y in 2015, which would be the first annual decline in almost three decades. The driving force behind the slump has been a collapse in Chinese seaborne coal imports, which fell 40% y-o-y in the first five months of the year. This month’s Commodity Countdown explores the cause and implications of the drop in Chinese coal import demand.
The Hoover Losing Suction
China’s role in recent global coal trade has been to hoover up coal output and provide a seemingly bottomless source of demand to exporters around the world. Chinese imports accounted for a quarter of growth in seaborne coal trade in 2012 and 65% in 2013. However, as the graph shows, the country’s coal import demand has been in steady decline since the beginning of 2014 and with the acceleration of the downturn in the first half of 2015, China is likely to lose its leading position, while global seaborne coal trade is expected to record its first decline in decades.
The Prognosis
The majority of coal consumed in China is sourced domestically, meaning that even a small change in the country’s coal use can impact heavily on seaborne imports. With that in mind, Chinese coal fired power generation dropped 3% y-o-y in the first five months of 2015 on the back of the government’s measures to tackle air pollution. There have been a number of power plant closures in recent months, while Chinese importers became increasingly particular about their coal purchases, due to the introduction of a series of coal quality regulations. Correspondingly, Chinese thermal coal imports dropped 39% y-o-y in January to May to the lowest level for the period since 2011. Similarly, coking coal imports dropped 41% y-o-y in January to May, coinciding with the 1.3% y-o-y drop in steel production in 1H 2015. The drop has been largely attributed to easing infrastructure development and sluggish construction activity.
The Impact On Exporters
As China’s coal imports from seaborne suppliers have dropped across the board in the year to date, coal miners have been put under severe financial pressure. Indonesian miners have taken a particularly severe blow, with a large number forced to cut output. Total Indonesian coal production dropped 19% y-o-y in January to May, while shipments to China halved y-o-y. Elsewhere, while Australian miners are likely to benefit modestly from a free trade agreement signed in June, forecasts still indicate a difficult remainder of the year, following the 15% y-o-y drop in exports to China in January to May. Finally, while India is on course to become the leading seaborne coal importer in 2015, it is likely to fall considerably short of filling the demand gap left by China. As such, the impact of collapsing Chinese coal import demand on global coal trade is likely to be significant.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 31 July 15
CAPE'S PAPER MARKET REMAINS FIRM - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment that the Dry Bulk market has been enjoying as of the previous month, was carried through last week as well, bu ...
Friday, 31 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP 3.6% FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 25
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CHINA'S NEW OIL IMPORT RULES HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON STATUS QUO - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that China's looser criteria for crude oil import rights are a positive but modest step towards encouraging private-sector p ...
Thursday, 30 July 15
EFFECTS OF THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET CRISIS - INTERMODAL
All evidence is currently signaling that the Chinese stock market will be the newest hurdle for the global economy. With the world's second lar ...
Wednesday, 29 July 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and gains week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decl ...
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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