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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 02 February 24
DRY BULK MARKET: THE DOWNWARD REVISION IN THE GROWTH OF CAPESIZE TONNE DAYS IN JANUARY WITH THE BCI DROPPING - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In the last week of January, the dry freight market sustained weakness in the Capesize segment, while the number of ballasters in the Southeast (SE ...
Friday, 02 February 24
COAL INDIA ACHIEVES NEARLY 80% OF ITS FY24 PRODUCTION TARGET IN TEN MONTHS - CNBCTV18
For the month of January, the company’s production grew by 9.1% from the same period last year to 78.4 Million Tonnes (MT), from 71.9 MT last ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
CHINA'S WIND, SOLAR CAPACITY TO OVERTAKE COAL IN 2024 - INDUSTRY BODY, REUTERS REPORTED
China’s installed wind and solar capacity is expected to overtake coal for the first time this year, according to industry forecasts.
&nb ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
ANTI-DEDUCTION CLAUSES: CAN A CHARTERER WITHHOLD HIRE WITHOUT AN OWNER'S CONSENT? - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Summary
In The Anna Dorothea, the Court found that where a charterparty provides that no deduction from hire may be m ...
Thursday, 01 February 24
INDIA REBUILDS COAL STOCKS TO ENSURE ELECTRIC RELIABILITY - REUTERS
India’s electricity supply is much more comfortable at the start of 2024 than in either 2023 or 2022 as coal production has ramped up and the ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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