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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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