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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 24 March 15
A WEAK WEEK FOR FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 drop month on month and week over week.
The Q2 swap fell US$ 2.48 (5.12%) month ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q2 CLOSED $ 1.87 HIGHER COMPARED TO Q3 CLOSING PRICE
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 declined month over month and week on week.
The Q2 swap has dropped U ...
Tuesday, 24 March 15
ARGUS MEDITERRANEAN SOLID FUELS 2015 CONFERENCE | 2-3 JUNE, ISTANBUL
Press Release: Argus Media is proud to announce Argus Mediterranean Solid Fuels, which will be held in Istanbul,on 2-3February.
Argus produces ...
Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, ...
Monday, 23 March 15
Q4' 2015 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINED 6.79% M-O-M; 2.55% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 3.42 per MT (-6.33%) month over month and US$ 1.37 (-2.77%) we ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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