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Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
 With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is still prevailing across the Dry Bulk sector. Average rates for all sizes are now trading below OPEX levels, rendering owners exposed to substantial loses. Apart from the existing tonnage surplus, for which we have talked a lot during the last years, anemic global growth and demand for dry bulk commodities have also pushed the BDI to its lowest historical point.
The decline of coal trade due to low demand from China is causing a big “headache” to Capesize and Panamax owners. Imports to China have been significantly reduced, since the local government is trying to shift away its dependency to coal for electricity production, to other renewable sources of energy. Despite that other countries like India have increased coal imports but that has so far proved inadequate to substitute entirely the fall in Chinese imports. As a result, many Panamaxes and capers, which were engaged in coal trade, are shifting to iron ore trade where in terms of transferred volume we are witnessing a healthy trade growth despite the fact that rates here have also plummeted.
Iron ore exports to China from Australia and Brazil rose as stockpiles in Chinese ports had hit a 12-month low in the beginning of the year. Low iron ore price together with cheap transportation cost and Chinese New Year festivities around the corner is the reason behind the increased volumes of iron ore imports. This increase has helped the Capesize market to slightly pick up from its historical lower point ever recorded in January and witness improved rates, which nonetheless are still far from what could be described as decent.
Headlines regarding the dry bulk market are mostly negative these days, however in this bearish market there are some news which could be interpreted as positive signs, something that market needs since this “crisis” is not only driven by its fundamental problems but also by sentiment. On one hand, iron ore imports could be soon increasing as demand from the Chinese steel industry is expected to rise on the back of the recently announced plan by the Chinese government to invest heavily (around USD1 trillion) in infrastructure projects as an attempt to support growth.
Secondly, activity in dry bulk demolition activity has increased the last month as a result of declining freight rates. As a matter of fact, in just one month’s time the number of Capesize vessels that was sold for scrap reached the number of Capesizes scrapped during the whole of 2014. Under this freight environment it is very likely that this trend will continue, helping the market alleviate some of the abundant tonnage. Finally, new building activity is declining because of both the current negative environment and also lack of finance to support these projects as a result of this environment. Also some contracted dry projects which have not commenced are now being swapped to wet projects allowing the substantial dry bulk order book to take a much needed breath.
A “perfect storm” is currently taking place in the Dry Bulk market. Overcapacity, anemic global growth, lack of demand for dry bulk cargoes and bearish sentiment amongst players, have all come together and pushed the market to its lowest point since 1986. But let’s not forget that during “perfect storms” there are always opportunities, as these are the exact points in a cycle when asset values hit attractive lows that makes investing suitable for asset play opportunities and fleet renewals, especially for those who have sat in the sideways all these years waiting for this exact “perfect storm”.
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Saturday, 28 March 15
THE DRY BULK FLEET AT BREAKING POINT - CLARKSONS
The severe oversupply in the bulkcarrier fleet has contributed to the current trough in the dry bulk market, putting considerable financial pressur ...
Friday, 27 March 15
INDONESIA: NEW REGULATION REQUIRES LETTER OF CREDIT FOR EXPORT OF PRODUCTS FROM NATURAL RESOURCES
The Minister of Trade issued Ministerial Regulation No. 04/M-DAG/PER/1/2015 (“Regulation No. 4/2015”) on 5 January 2015. Regulati ...
Friday, 27 March 15
WEEKLY U.S COAL OUTPUT FALLS 1.7% W-W; 7.9% Y-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.2 million ...
Thursday, 26 March 15
CHINA IRON ORE IMPORT FOR THE FIRST 2 MONTHS DECLINED BY 1.2 % Y-O-Y; PANAMAX AUSSIE/CHINA ROUNDS BEING FIXED IN THE $4 -5K RANGE - FEARNLEYS
Handy
There has been more activity in both hemispheres this week. Especially the USG market has picked up with more cargoes for prompter dates en ...
Thursday, 26 March 15
RATES FOR THE SMALLER SIZE SEGMENT CONTINUED TO IMPROVE LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
To see green across the board is a rare occurrence in the Dry Bulk market nowadays and while the upside in which last week closed off is not of the ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
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