We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 29 January 15
CHINA ENERGY DEMAND MUST BE REVIEWED DUE TO FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC CHANGES - WOOD MACKENZIE
 New patterns emerging as energy demand growth decoupled significantly from GDP growth for the first time in 2014
Wood Mackenzie says 2014 was a significant year for China as economic rebalancing led demand growth - for a range of major energy commodities - and GDP growth decoupled significantly for the first time. Over the past two decades, commodity demand growth had maintained relatively proportionate annual increases to GDP growth. In 2014 however the pace of power, gas, coal and diesel demand increase fell more drastically than the slight GDP moderation, beyond expectations. Wood Mackenzie expects gas demand will recover in one to two years as the key drivers of slower growth are mainly cyclical but power, coal and diesel demand will see their outlook change notably over the long-term due to major structural changes in the economy and policy. Global energy sector will need to identify which changes are structural or cyclical in to determine future demand patterns and opportunities.
China's GDP grew by 7.4% in 2014 compared to 7.7% in 2013, a modest decline. Meanwhile, compared to 2013 power demand growth fell by almost half; Gas demand growth fell by more than 8%-point; Coal demand barely grew; and Diesel demand actually contracted for the first time in more than a decade. (refer to chart). Ms Cynthia Lim, Principal Asia Economist for Wood Mackenzie says, "7.4% is still a large year-on-year GDP increase for any economy so this fall in commodity demand is counter-intuitive and we have only seen the tip of the iceberg. The Chinese government is moving away from the post-2008 investment binge and gradually moving towards a more moderate but sustainable consumption-led economic growth. There are two aspects of rebalancing: one, away from investment towards consumption, particularly in the developed coastal region; and two, a shift in economic gravity away from the coast and towards the inland region. Both trends will have significant implications on commodity demand shifts. An important indicator for the energy industry to watch will be the weakness of industry versus the strength of the consumer in China."
The research company expects Industrial recovery and related investment will remain subdued in 2015-2016 but should see robust growth through the medium-term supported by urbanisation. Key sectors such as coal and steel are weighed down by overcapacity, tighter environmental regulations and the property market slowdown. While the government has relaxed both house purchase restrictions and credit conditions through 2014, recovery in real estate will be slow as inventory levels remain high and potential buyers stay on the side line due to market uncertainty.
Wood Mackenzie analyses which sectors will be most affected in the near-term (one to two years), medium term (two to seven years) and long-term (over eight years):
Power - Sustained change due to economic rebalancing
The short-term weakness in the industrial sector will continue to subdue power demand growth, especially as high inventory levels are reduced. Mr Gavin Thompson, Principal Analyst for APAC Gas & Power research says, "Industrial output will eventually recover from overcapacity and weak demand but China's rebalancing away from industry to the service sector will have a longer-term structural impact. In tandem with the geographic rebalancing of China's economy, regional power patterns will also change with higher demand growth concentrated in the western provinces where industrialisation processes are focused, compared to coastal markets." Wood Mackenzie forecasts that power demand year-on-year in the western regions will rise at around twice the pace of coastal markets through the medium term of 2-7 years, with significant implications for capacity and fuel choices.
Coal - Remains king but impacted by structural lower power demand growth
The pace of annual coal demand growth slowed to 4-5% in 2012 and 2013 from (what the previous year), particularly in coastal markets with near-zero growth in demand for power generation. However, Mr Thompson asserts, "Coal remains king in China but growth has been severely reduced, due to industrial weakness as well as cyclical weather patterns that saw higher rainfall boost hydro output. Through the short-term, coal-fired generation will likely be muted by lower power demand, environmental policies and a rise in non-coal generation including hydro. Longer-term , coal demand pace and patterns will be impacted by structural changes, with demand rising fastest from inland provinces and the acceleration of ultra high voltage (UHV) transmission lines to export power to the coast."
Gas - demand growth will rebound but cyclical low oil prices and weather will cause near-term pain
Over the past decade gas demand in China increased by 16% a year on average between 2004-2013. Last year however, gas demand growth slowed notably from over 13% in 2013 to around 8% in 2014. Mr Thompson explains, "This was influenced more by cyclical factors. In addition to slowing GDP growth, evolving environmental policies, higher hydro output, mild winter weather in northern China and high domestic gas prices relative to oil were key factors that saw gas demand growth fall sharply. In 2015, the government's decision on domestic gas price reform will be a key influence on demand. While we expect domestic demand growth over the next few years to return to historic levels, a swift return to double-digit growth may not be achievable without lower city gate gas prices."
Oil products - weaker diesel demand outlook to stay
2014 was the fourth straight year of a decoupling relationship between China's GDP and oil demand growth as the effects of the 2009 stimulus began to fade. However, growth in oil demand has varied by oil product since then given each product's distinct drivers: Diesel demand is estimated to have contracted 0.7% in 2014 as commercial transportation demand reduced. Mr Thompson explains, "We believe we are now witnessing a structural change in China's diesel demand as the economy rebalances away from heavy industry. In contrast, gasoline demand, which reflects personal car ownership, maintained a robust growth of 8% in 2014. Healthy growth momentum for gasoline demand will likely be sustained as the economy shifts further towards consumption."
Ms Lim concludes, "The rebalancing of China's economy will play an important role in shaping the energy demand outlook for 2015 and beyond. We believe a recovery in demand for power, coal and diesel in particular is closely tied to the industrial demand outlook. While these commodities will experience a moderate recovery in the medium term as over-capacity is reduced, the on-going transition of China's economy away from an industry-led model suggests their relationship with GDP growth will weaken permanently in the longer-run. As a result, the energy sector must keep attuned to both China's underlying changes and also shorter-term developments to position it for the changing opportunities the market offers."
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
|
|
|
Showing 51 to 55 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
|
| |
| |
|
