We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Thursday, 29 January 15
CHINA ENERGY DEMAND MUST BE REVIEWED DUE TO FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC CHANGES - WOOD MACKENZIE
 New patterns emerging as energy demand growth decoupled significantly from GDP growth for the first time in 2014
Wood Mackenzie says 2014 was a significant year for China as economic rebalancing led demand growth - for a range of major energy commodities - and GDP growth decoupled significantly for the first time. Over the past two decades, commodity demand growth had maintained relatively proportionate annual increases to GDP growth. In 2014 however the pace of power, gas, coal and diesel demand increase fell more drastically than the slight GDP moderation, beyond expectations. Wood Mackenzie expects gas demand will recover in one to two years as the key drivers of slower growth are mainly cyclical but power, coal and diesel demand will see their outlook change notably over the long-term due to major structural changes in the economy and policy. Global energy sector will need to identify which changes are structural or cyclical in to determine future demand patterns and opportunities.
China's GDP grew by 7.4% in 2014 compared to 7.7% in 2013, a modest decline. Meanwhile, compared to 2013 power demand growth fell by almost half; Gas demand growth fell by more than 8%-point; Coal demand barely grew; and Diesel demand actually contracted for the first time in more than a decade. (refer to chart). Ms Cynthia Lim, Principal Asia Economist for Wood Mackenzie says, "7.4% is still a large year-on-year GDP increase for any economy so this fall in commodity demand is counter-intuitive and we have only seen the tip of the iceberg. The Chinese government is moving away from the post-2008 investment binge and gradually moving towards a more moderate but sustainable consumption-led economic growth. There are two aspects of rebalancing: one, away from investment towards consumption, particularly in the developed coastal region; and two, a shift in economic gravity away from the coast and towards the inland region. Both trends will have significant implications on commodity demand shifts. An important indicator for the energy industry to watch will be the weakness of industry versus the strength of the consumer in China."
The research company expects Industrial recovery and related investment will remain subdued in 2015-2016 but should see robust growth through the medium-term supported by urbanisation. Key sectors such as coal and steel are weighed down by overcapacity, tighter environmental regulations and the property market slowdown. While the government has relaxed both house purchase restrictions and credit conditions through 2014, recovery in real estate will be slow as inventory levels remain high and potential buyers stay on the side line due to market uncertainty.
Wood Mackenzie analyses which sectors will be most affected in the near-term (one to two years), medium term (two to seven years) and long-term (over eight years):
Power - Sustained change due to economic rebalancing
The short-term weakness in the industrial sector will continue to subdue power demand growth, especially as high inventory levels are reduced. Mr Gavin Thompson, Principal Analyst for APAC Gas & Power research says, "Industrial output will eventually recover from overcapacity and weak demand but China's rebalancing away from industry to the service sector will have a longer-term structural impact. In tandem with the geographic rebalancing of China's economy, regional power patterns will also change with higher demand growth concentrated in the western provinces where industrialisation processes are focused, compared to coastal markets." Wood Mackenzie forecasts that power demand year-on-year in the western regions will rise at around twice the pace of coastal markets through the medium term of 2-7 years, with significant implications for capacity and fuel choices.
Coal - Remains king but impacted by structural lower power demand growth
The pace of annual coal demand growth slowed to 4-5% in 2012 and 2013 from (what the previous year), particularly in coastal markets with near-zero growth in demand for power generation. However, Mr Thompson asserts, "Coal remains king in China but growth has been severely reduced, due to industrial weakness as well as cyclical weather patterns that saw higher rainfall boost hydro output. Through the short-term, coal-fired generation will likely be muted by lower power demand, environmental policies and a rise in non-coal generation including hydro. Longer-term , coal demand pace and patterns will be impacted by structural changes, with demand rising fastest from inland provinces and the acceleration of ultra high voltage (UHV) transmission lines to export power to the coast."
Gas - demand growth will rebound but cyclical low oil prices and weather will cause near-term pain
Over the past decade gas demand in China increased by 16% a year on average between 2004-2013. Last year however, gas demand growth slowed notably from over 13% in 2013 to around 8% in 2014. Mr Thompson explains, "This was influenced more by cyclical factors. In addition to slowing GDP growth, evolving environmental policies, higher hydro output, mild winter weather in northern China and high domestic gas prices relative to oil were key factors that saw gas demand growth fall sharply. In 2015, the government's decision on domestic gas price reform will be a key influence on demand. While we expect domestic demand growth over the next few years to return to historic levels, a swift return to double-digit growth may not be achievable without lower city gate gas prices."
Oil products - weaker diesel demand outlook to stay
2014 was the fourth straight year of a decoupling relationship between China's GDP and oil demand growth as the effects of the 2009 stimulus began to fade. However, growth in oil demand has varied by oil product since then given each product's distinct drivers: Diesel demand is estimated to have contracted 0.7% in 2014 as commercial transportation demand reduced. Mr Thompson explains, "We believe we are now witnessing a structural change in China's diesel demand as the economy rebalances away from heavy industry. In contrast, gasoline demand, which reflects personal car ownership, maintained a robust growth of 8% in 2014. Healthy growth momentum for gasoline demand will likely be sustained as the economy shifts further towards consumption."
Ms Lim concludes, "The rebalancing of China's economy will play an important role in shaping the energy demand outlook for 2015 and beyond. We believe a recovery in demand for power, coal and diesel in particular is closely tied to the industrial demand outlook. While these commodities will experience a moderate recovery in the medium term as over-capacity is reduced, the on-going transition of China's economy away from an industry-led model suggests their relationship with GDP growth will weaken permanently in the longer-run. As a result, the energy sector must keep attuned to both China's underlying changes and also shorter-term developments to position it for the changing opportunities the market offers."
About Wood Mackenzie
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 31 January 24
CHINA'S INNER MONGOLIA COAL OUTPUT HIT 1.21B TONS IN 2023 - XINHUA
North China’s Inner Mongolia autonomous region churned out 1.21 billion tons of coal in 2023 as it strives to guarantee the country’s e ...
Wednesday, 31 January 24
GAS EXPORTS COST U.S. CONSUMERS MORE THAN $100 BILLION OVER 16-MONTH PERIOD - IEEFA
Limited Demand Growth Could Dampen the Dry Bulk Market in the Coming Months BIMCOStarting in late 2021—before its invasion of Ukraine—R ...
Tuesday, 30 January 24
LIMITED DEMAND GROWTH COULD DAMPEN THE DRY BULK MARKET IN THE COMING MONTHS - BIMCO
Demand
In our base scenario, we expect cargo demand to grow by 0-1% in 2024 and 0.5-1.5% in 2025. This is a 0.5 percentage point reduction for ...
Friday, 26 January 24
RED SEA DIVERSIONS ADD NEARLY A MILLION DOLLARS PER VOYAGE TO SHIPPING COSTS WHILE DOUBLING TRANSIT TIME - LSEG
The incremental costs of diverting a tanker from Asia to NW Europe via the Cape of Good Hope is accounting for an extra $932,905 USD per voyage whi ...
Friday, 26 January 24
HARD COAL GUARDIAN ANGEL OF THE ENERGY SUPPLY - GERMANY COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- No security of supply without hard coal
- The Substitute Power Plant Provision Act (EKBG) must be extended
- Higher grid fees due to the ...
|
|
|
Showing 46 to 50 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
