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Monday, 26 January 15
OVERSUPPLY, AMPLE STOCKPILES, AND LACKLUSTER UNDERLYING STEEL DEMAND KEPT COKING COAL PRICES LOW IN 2014

COALspot.com: Coking coal prices (FOB & CFR) fell 15% and 18% respectively during the year, amidst persistent oversupply, ample inventory and slower steel demand growth, says SGX Commodities 2014 Review.

According to SGX, spot prices remained depressed through 2014 as ‘take or pay’ continued to wreck havoc. Looking forward, deflationary pressures may hamper hopes of a near-term recovery, while policy changes have created further lingering uncertainties. Coking coal FOB & CFR prices declined 15.0% and 18.3% respectively during the first three months of the year, and remained relatively stable within a $10 per tonne range thereafter.

SGX’s commodities 2014 review further noted that, a combination of persistent oversupply, ample stockpiles within China, and lackluster underlying steel demand kept prices low through the year.  In August 2014, SGX launched coking coal derivatives (FOB Australia & CFR China) in response to the increasing trend towards index-linked pricing across the industry.

A variety of factors have kept coking coal prices depressed for longer than many had previously forecast.  Such factors include:
(i) a drive by major producers to lower unit costs by improving production efficiencies and increasing production (thereby also increasing market share);
(ii) ‘take or pay ’  rail commitments in Australia, often making it more economical to continue producing at a loss than to cease production (NB. Australia accounts for more than half of seaborne supply); and
(iii) cost deflation in the domestic Chinese coal industry.

Looking forward, SGX’s Commodities 2014 Review report says that, while many analysts have been calling a bottom in the coking coal price, the timing of any meaningful recovery remains far from clear. Supply cuts are indeed emerging.  However, deflationary pressures such as falling resource currencies and a slump in oil prices may hinder the prospect of any significant recovery in the near-term. With a relatively flat cost curve, FX may also be an important variable.

Furthermore, there is uncertainty over the likely medium-term impact of the reduction in China’ s export tax on coking coal from 10% to 3% (effective 1 Jan 2015); Japanese and Korean mills used to procure coking coal from China and, while relative costs will be a factor, there may be a strategic argument to diversifying supply, SGX concluded.

SGX also launched coking coal derivatives in August 2014  in response to the increasing trend towards spot and index-linked pricing.



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