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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
 COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Planning Commission, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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