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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
 COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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