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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a potentially positive credit impact for a number of Asia-Pacific sovereigns if the lower prices are sustained below USD90/bbl through 2015, in line with our latest forecast, says Fitch Ratings.
Most major Asian economies - including China, Japan, Korea and Thailand - would see an effective overall income boost from sustained lower oil prices. In addition, countries with large oil import needs facing external adjustment pressures such as Indonesia and India are among the best positioned to see a positive impact on sovereign credit profiles, although the broader policy response will matter too.
All but one of the Fitch-rated APAC sovereigns are net oil importers. Net oil import bills range significantly, from greater than 10% of GDP for Thailand to less than 2% for Bangladesh and Vietnam. Korea, Japan and China have net import bills of 6%, 3% and just over 2% of GDP, respectively.
For consumers, there would be a positive consumption effect from falling retail energy prices. Disinflation as a result of lower oil prices could also contribute to GDP growth less directly in some countries, by facilitating a more accommodative monetary policy than would otherwise be followed. Notably, several key Asian economies, including Japan, have been increasingly relying on liquefied natural gas (LNG) as part of their energy mix, and Asian LNG prices are linked to Brent crude.
A combined positive impact on fiscal accounts, economic growth and terms of trade, would be particularly beneficial for the sovereign credits of countries which are both net oil importers and facing external adjustment pressures, including Indonesia and India. Lower oil prices will help to ease the trade-offs faced by these economies as they aim to bolster growth while reducing external account deficits.
Beyond the macroeconomic growth effects, the fiscal impact could also be significant for several south and south-east Asian sovereigns. Both the Indian and Indonesian governments have already taken advantage of the price decline. In India, diesel prices were deregulated on 18 October. The direct impact on our headline fiscal forecasts is expected to be limited, while this will make the fiscal accounts more robust against future oil shocks, since both diesel and petrol prices are now determined by the market.
In Indonesia, the new administration under President Joko Widodo raised the administered price of fuel by over 30% on 18 November. Roughly 15% of total government spending (2.4% of GDP) is allocated to fuel subsidies, according to the state budget. In addition to direct effects on the state budget, the price hike provides a clear, positive signal of the new government's intentions to swiftly implement its reform agenda.
However, the extent to which sovereigns are able to realise the potential fiscal benefits will be determined at least partly by how policy makers respond - whether they use budget windfalls to increase spending or reduce deficits.
Fitch has lowered its forecast for the price of Brent Crude to average USD87/bbl through 2015 and USD90/bbl for 2016 as part of our latest forecasting round, down from our September forecasts of USD100/bbl and USD95/bbl, respectively.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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