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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Monday, 27 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS PERFORMED POSITIVE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.68 (-2.55%) month over month and increased US$ 0.87 (+1.3 ...
Sunday, 26 October 14
CAPE'S STRONG PERFORMANCE PUSHES BDI INDEX UPWARDS
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 26.27 pct and closed at 1192 points week and week. The Cape size performance has pushed up BDI and Cape size index ...
Friday, 24 October 14
WEEKLY U.S COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7% FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 18
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 23 October 14
THE BEARS, HOWEVER, STILL CRY; FOR HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? - FEARNLEYS
Handy
"We experience a typical oversupply of ships in the Atlantic which causing rates to slide. In the USG it is just enough cargoes to kee ...
Wednesday, 22 October 14
MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS, INTERMODAL
ECO designs - revisited
The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plummeting to their cheapest level since 2010. Is this ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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