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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Wednesday, 29 October 14
GOOD REASON WHY Q4 CAPESIZE OUTLOOK WAS SO BULLISH AT START OF THE YEAR - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: There was good reason why so many analysts' capesize outlook for Q4 was so very strong at the start of this year. Brazilian ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SGX'S FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q1' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 68.07 ON 24 OCT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.65 (-0.96%) month over month and increased US$ 1.79 (+2. ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED 3.68% LOWER MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week.
The swap has lost US ...
Monday, 27 October 14
GOVT PROMISES TO EASE LICENSING PROCEDURES IN MINING SECTOR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to simplify the complicated licensing procedures i ...
Monday, 27 October 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.10 LESSER THAN Q4' 14 CLOSING OF $ 53.27 PMT
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.43 (-2.61%) month over month and increased US$ 0.05 (+0.09% ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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