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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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