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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The University of Queensland
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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