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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Wednesday, 16 July 14
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Wake me up when September ends - Theodore Ntalakos
Since last September most thought that the worst was behind us. It looks like the market de ...
Tuesday, 15 July 14
INDONESIA'S TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION REACHED ANOTHER HIGH DURING THE FIRST SIX MONTHS; GOVERNMENT EXPECTED TO RAISE ROYALTIES
COALspot.com: Indonesia's total coal production reached 213 million tons during January through June, up by 7.6 percent y-o-y. Coal output in I ...
Monday, 14 July 14
THE END OF THE ERA OF HEAVY FUEL OIL IN MARITIME SHIPPING - ICCT
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Since the 1960s, heavy fuel oil (HFO) has been the king of marine fuels. Viscous, dirty, yet inexpensive and widely avail ...
Monday, 14 July 14
SGX SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 54.80
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 14 July 14
SGX CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 14 LOST 17.29% SINCE EARLY JANUARY 2014
COALspot.com: Coal price falling is continues as the impact oversupply and lower demand. API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in Q3 drops U ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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