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Friday, 26 September 14
NEWCASTLMAXES ARE THE MOST SOUGHT AFTER VESSELS BY SHIP OWNERS TODAY SAYS VESSELS VALUE
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Determining a ship’s fair value can be a very tricky business, especially when you’re the one paying. As such, ship owners are looking at a variety of factors, when they pull the trigger on new acquisitions, whether these are newbuildings or existing carriers, especially in today’s challenging market conditions, when a wrong business decision is often hard to recover from.
In an exclusive interview with Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com), Vessels Value’s Director of Analytics, Mr. Kaizad Doctor, provides a very useful insight into the process of evaluating ships’ prices, while noting the current trends in the market. The ship valuations’ company is also launching a new service, with an aim to provide a more tailored analysis of ship values.
In which parts of the market, have you witnessed the biggest market corrections?
We re-base the standard 5 year old vessels to Jan 14 and evaluate the change in prices. The prices are adjusted for depreciation and therefore represent absolute market fluctuations.
We can see that despite the recent poor performance of the Panamax sectors the smaller vessel types, Handysize has the worst total returns in terms of asset prices.
Do you feel that asset values have bottomed out, or is there still room for more falls?
Asset values have been evaluated in terms of their relative position across market cycles. We evaluate the current 5 year old asset values historically in terms of their relative percentiles. (e.g. Capesize 5 Yo is currently valued at 49.6 MUSD which is roughly 45% of the historical price changes from Jan 2007, however after eliminating the supercycle we find that the number jumps to 67% and Capesizes do not look cheap).
Judging by our metrics below we feel that Supra and Handy are relatively cheap however our study is not forward looking and obsolescence in terms of asset classes needs to be considered (e.g. Ultramax’s)
In terms of the future course of values, in which segments do you see potential for major fluctuations?
We evaluate volatility (rate of change or fluctuations) across asset classes and we find that the larger vessels are prone to periods of higher volatility which then “spills over” across the categories.
An historical evaluation shows periods of high volatility in the cape segments and overall periods (see surface below) where all sectors were affected simultaneously.
Going forward we expect the highest volatility in the Capesize and the Ultramax segments.
In terms of owners’ demand, do you think that modern tonnage (i.e. up to 5 years old) or older tonnage is the most sought-after?
We have indices for liquidity which enable us to evaluate the most “fashionable” asset size and age. This preference changes with time and reflects the owners future view of the sectors earning capabilities.
This indicates the current preference for newbuilding resales and capesizes less than 5 year olds currently but in 2011 the preference was also expressed for older capes.
Sticking with ships demand, where do you see ship owners heading in terms of future demand? Which vessels offer the best value for money at the moment, at least when compared to their historical price averages?
We represent the order book in terms of time and size by category in order to evaluate the owners preferences and see which categories are most popular,
Two sample categories:
Capesize: newcastlemax vessels are currently the most popular size for capes providing a marked shift from the traditional 180,000K vessels.
Supramax: this sector has a more heterogeneous size preference however Ultramax new builds and a preference for larger Supramax can be clearly seen.
What new services have you introduced lately? Do you feel that the market is now covered in its entirety by VesselsValue?
We are launching our new service VVQ Bespoke Consultancy, a collection of advanced analytical services, products and reports for maritime and finance professionals. Reports can be tailored to your preferences, are delivered in a time frame to suit the client, anywhere from weekly, monthly or yearly. We purposely designed VVQ to incorporate the same instant access of an entire ship database with unique and personalized reports.
Do you feel that, in the future, you will have to distinguish pricing and valuations, between ECO ships and their more conventional counterparts?
Eco Ships are a premium type of newbuild and so carry extra value which translates into the second hand market: If the market is flat i.e. there is not much activity, there is a greater gap between the total value of newbuilds and second hand vessels.
However if there is a spike in demand, the eco gap becomes smaller. This makes it a two tier market. The better the market, the more the price differential narrows.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
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Friday, 18 July 14
3RD CHINA INTERNATIONAL SHALE GAS SUMMIT
Building on the massive success of the past 2 shale gas programs that has generated huge success by attracting 500+ industry players, and intrig ...
Friday, 18 July 14
US WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP BY 1.4% TO 18.3 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 17 July 14
PANAMAX : MARKET HAS COOLED DOWN AGAIN TO LOW AND DEPRESSED LEVELS
Handy
The supra market remains pretty flat in the Atlantic while for the smaller sizes there has been little reported with ships chasing business ...
Thursday, 17 July 14
INDIAN GOVERNMENT WISE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF CURRENTLY LOW THERMAL COAL PRICES AND SHIPPING RATES - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
With thermal coal import prices (and also shipping rates) very low at present, India's government would be very wise to take advantage of curre ...
Wednesday, 16 July 14
INDIA BUDGET HAS LIMITED SHORT TERM IMPACT ON POWER SECTOR - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says that the measures announced relating to India's electricity sector in the budget for FY2015 are directionally correct but in ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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