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Saturday, 24 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S RECOVERY IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER SAYS SHIPOWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the weaker than expected market sentiment in the dry bulk market over the course of the past few months, analysts and shipowners alike appear optimistic about a sustainable recovery of the market going forward. According to Friday's report from dry bulk shipowner Golden Ocean, "even though second quarter spot market so far has been weaker than predicted by most analysts following the sector, earnings have still been better than for the same period last year.
The Capesize earnings has year to date been $14,650 /day, compared to $5,650/day for the same period last year. In 2013 the dry bulk market started its recovery in June and gained more momentum from August onwards. From a demand perspective it is expected that new iron ore supply coming on stream will be the main driver over the next two to three years. From 2014 through 2016 as much as 280 million tons additional supply will become available for the global steel industry", said Golden Ocean.
In its market outlook the company noted that "analysts following the Chinese steel industry are expecting lower steel production growth. This is based on the assumptions of lower GDP growth and a gradual change from heavy infrastructure projects and construction to a more consumer focused growth model. In spite of a slower steel production growth analysts believe that demand for iron ore will continue to grow at a steady pace. With all the new capacity entering the market is likely that international iron ore prices will come under even stronger pressure. Consequently a major portion of the domestically produced iron ore which is both more expensive and with an inferior quality could potentially be ousted.
Meanwhile, the ordering of new vessels has been quite brisk. But given that most orders that have been placed lately are for second half 2016 onwards, the supply growth next eighteen months is not expected to exceed five per cent per annum. Most shipping analysts believe that demand growth will be around six per cent per annum and thereby outpace supply growth, leading to a higher utilization of the dry bulk fleet through 2015", Golden Ocean noted.
In its analysis of the dry bulk market so far in the year, the company said that "the second biggest economy in the world continued to make the headlines during first quarter of 2014. China has become the favorite of concerns among many observers analyzing the macroeconomics. The importance for the dry bulk industry is well known and China contributed with 83 per cent of global dry bulk growth, or 200 million tons in pure volume growth, during 2013. Chinese GDP grew by 7.4 per cent during the first quarter which was in line with expectations. In addition to the positive development in the U.S., several of the European economies showed signs of recovery. On the back of this EU increased its steel
production by 6.7 percent compared to same quarter in 2013.
The global steel industry and energy coal for utilities are accounting for about 70 percent of seaborne dry bulk transportations and both coal and iron ore volumes increased during first quarter. China imported 240 million mt of iron ore during the first quarter. This is 20 per cent more than the same quarter last year. Coal imports to China came in at 71 million mt or 9.5 per cent more than the first quarter of 2013. Japan imported 49.5 million mt of coal, which again represented an increase of about 9 per cent. Preliminary data is indicating an overall volume growth in seaborne dry bulk trade of 6 per cent for the first three months of 2014
against a net fleet growth of about 5 per cent", it noted.
DRY BULK MARKET TONNAGE TRENDS
According to Golden Ocean, about 16 million dwt of new capacity was delivered and 3.5 million dwt was scrapped during first quarter. Delivery ratio, versus what should have been delivered according to the official order book, is slightly higher this year compared to the previous five years. The main reason is that the current order book has a higher percentage of good quality yards where orders are delivered in time. About 25 million dwt were ordered during the first quarter, almost twice as much as the same quarter last year, but still 10 million dwt less than the fourth quarter of 2013. The order book represents 19 per cent of the total dry bulk fleet.
Capesize vessels earned on average $16,300 per day during the first quarter, and experienced strong volatility ranging from $7,900 per day to $35,000 per day. Panamaxes earned on average $10.425 per day with less volatility. The market performed better than most forecasters predicted, given that iron ore stockpiles in the major Chinese ports were high by the end of last year. However de-stocking did not take place and stocks remained unchanged during the quarter. We have witnessed some draw down of inventories in recent weeks and the Capesize spot market in particular has reacted accordingly.
Expectations for an upturn in earnings were high through most of the first quarter. This was reflected in the Forward Freight Curve which was in contango, in particular for the second half of 2014. Due to the fact that spot earnings surprised on the upside in combination with a positive sentiment, asset values continued to trend higher in the three first months of the year. The value of a five year old Capesize was up 10 per cent for the quarter and according to broker estimates was worth $48 million, while a five year old Panamax was up 7.5 per cent first quarter and was estimated to be worth $29 million by the end of March 2014.
In April 2014 both spot and forward markets have been under pressure, but most analysts remain confident that the fundamentals should cater for a market upswing within the next few months", the company concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 23 May 14
DRY BULK NEWBUILDING CANCELLATIONS COULD HELP SUPPORT MARKET IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market's demise over the past few months maybe has come as a surprise to many, but analysts and shipbrokers are looking forward to ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
HEAR SUCCESSFUL CASE STUDIES FROM 10 INDEPENDENT UNCONVENTIONAL GAS OPERATORS
Unconventional Gas Asia 2014 will provide a unique opportunity for Asia’s unconventional gas leaders to share their experience and expertise ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CNPC-GAZPROM DEAL A MEDIUM - TERM POSITIVE FOR CHINA'S GAS SECTOR
Fitch Ratings says a 30-year deal in which Russia's OAO Gazprom (BBB/Negative) will supply gas to China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC; A ...
Thursday, 22 May 14
CAPESIZE : RATES ARE STILL UNDER PRESSURE
Handy
A quiet start into the week in Far East, some fresh Indonesian coal order in the market. For trips within S.E. Asia, Supras are trading aro ...
Wednesday, 21 May 14
SHIPPING: MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
The recent revision by the OECD of its global growth forecast has sparked a debate as to the potential outcome these new figures will have on seabo ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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