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Saturday, 24 May 14
DRY BULK MARKET'S RECOVERY IS JUST AROUND THE CORNER SAYS SHIPOWNER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
 Despite the weaker than expected market sentiment in the dry bulk market over the course of the past few months, analysts and shipowners alike appear optimistic about a sustainable recovery of the market going forward. According to Friday's report from dry bulk shipowner Golden Ocean, "even though second quarter spot market so far has been weaker than predicted by most analysts following the sector, earnings have still been better than for the same period last year.
The Capesize earnings has year to date been $14,650 /day, compared to $5,650/day for the same period last year. In 2013 the dry bulk market started its recovery in June and gained more momentum from August onwards. From a demand perspective it is expected that new iron ore supply coming on stream will be the main driver over the next two to three years. From 2014 through 2016 as much as 280 million tons additional supply will become available for the global steel industry", said Golden Ocean.
In its market outlook the company noted that "analysts following the Chinese steel industry are expecting lower steel production growth. This is based on the assumptions of lower GDP growth and a gradual change from heavy infrastructure projects and construction to a more consumer focused growth model. In spite of a slower steel production growth analysts believe that demand for iron ore will continue to grow at a steady pace. With all the new capacity entering the market is likely that international iron ore prices will come under even stronger pressure. Consequently a major portion of the domestically produced iron ore which is both more expensive and with an inferior quality could potentially be ousted.
Meanwhile, the ordering of new vessels has been quite brisk. But given that most orders that have been placed lately are for second half 2016 onwards, the supply growth next eighteen months is not expected to exceed five per cent per annum. Most shipping analysts believe that demand growth will be around six per cent per annum and thereby outpace supply growth, leading to a higher utilization of the dry bulk fleet through 2015", Golden Ocean noted.
In its analysis of the dry bulk market so far in the year, the company said that "the second biggest economy in the world continued to make the headlines during first quarter of 2014. China has become the favorite of concerns among many observers analyzing the macroeconomics. The importance for the dry bulk industry is well known and China contributed with 83 per cent of global dry bulk growth, or 200 million tons in pure volume growth, during 2013. Chinese GDP grew by 7.4 per cent during the first quarter which was in line with expectations. In addition to the positive development in the U.S., several of the European economies showed signs of recovery. On the back of this EU increased its steel
production by 6.7 percent compared to same quarter in 2013.
The global steel industry and energy coal for utilities are accounting for about 70 percent of seaborne dry bulk transportations and both coal and iron ore volumes increased during first quarter. China imported 240 million mt of iron ore during the first quarter. This is 20 per cent more than the same quarter last year. Coal imports to China came in at 71 million mt or 9.5 per cent more than the first quarter of 2013. Japan imported 49.5 million mt of coal, which again represented an increase of about 9 per cent. Preliminary data is indicating an overall volume growth in seaborne dry bulk trade of 6 per cent for the first three months of 2014
against a net fleet growth of about 5 per cent", it noted.
DRY BULK MARKET TONNAGE TRENDS
According to Golden Ocean, about 16 million dwt of new capacity was delivered and 3.5 million dwt was scrapped during first quarter. Delivery ratio, versus what should have been delivered according to the official order book, is slightly higher this year compared to the previous five years. The main reason is that the current order book has a higher percentage of good quality yards where orders are delivered in time. About 25 million dwt were ordered during the first quarter, almost twice as much as the same quarter last year, but still 10 million dwt less than the fourth quarter of 2013. The order book represents 19 per cent of the total dry bulk fleet.
Capesize vessels earned on average $16,300 per day during the first quarter, and experienced strong volatility ranging from $7,900 per day to $35,000 per day. Panamaxes earned on average $10.425 per day with less volatility. The market performed better than most forecasters predicted, given that iron ore stockpiles in the major Chinese ports were high by the end of last year. However de-stocking did not take place and stocks remained unchanged during the quarter. We have witnessed some draw down of inventories in recent weeks and the Capesize spot market in particular has reacted accordingly.
Expectations for an upturn in earnings were high through most of the first quarter. This was reflected in the Forward Freight Curve which was in contango, in particular for the second half of 2014. Due to the fact that spot earnings surprised on the upside in combination with a positive sentiment, asset values continued to trend higher in the three first months of the year. The value of a five year old Capesize was up 10 per cent for the quarter and according to broker estimates was worth $48 million, while a five year old Panamax was up 7.5 per cent first quarter and was estimated to be worth $29 million by the end of March 2014.
In April 2014 both spot and forward markets have been under pressure, but most analysts remain confident that the fundamentals should cater for a market upswing within the next few months", the company concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 26 May 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDO COAL SWAP Q1' 15 DELIVERIES CLOSED AT US$ 59.40 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average Q3’ 2014 lost on day, week and on month according to AsiaClear OTC coal swap's reports re ...
Monday, 26 May 14
Q3 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS LOST 2.24% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q3 14 deliveries lost 2.24 percent month on month and closed at US$ 73.88 per mt as on F ...
Monday, 26 May 14
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY RISES BY 78% IN DWT TONNAGE OVER THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF THE YEARS, AS OWNERS INVEST$40.5 BN - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Ship owners have plunged into newbuilding orders during the first four months of the year, as overall newbuilding business ended for the first four ...
Sunday, 25 May 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM SOUTH KALIMANTAN TO EAST COAST INDIAN PORTS WERE ASSESSED AT $9.50/MT
COALspot.com: The BDI was closed at 964 points down by 6.13 pct week on week. The Cape Index was lost 172 points or 11.24% week on week and closing ...
Friday, 23 May 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION SLIPS 1.8% WEEK ENDED MAY 17, 2014
COALspot.com – United States the world's second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.6 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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