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Thursday, 01 May 14
INDONESIA EXPORT BAN POINTS TO QUESTIONS OVER CHINA'S LONG-TERM BAUXITE SUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China’s Bauxite demand forecast to reach 240 million tonnes by 2030
In light of the Indonesian mineral ore ban that came into force on January 12th 2014, Wood Mackenzie says the aluminium industry - particularly in China - faces a challenge to address a growing shortage of the raw material bauxite, an aluminium ore. It poses a compelling question for China - the world’s largest aluminium producer and consumer – with it's alumina refinery production forecast to rise by almost 17 million tonnes (Mt) by 2018 and a further 40Mt by 2030. Wood Mackenzie estimates China will need access to an additional 130Mt of bauxite over 2013 levels and expects China to consume as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030.
Until now Indonesia was the main supplier of bauxite to China, accounting for around 65% of overall supply in 2013. However, the mineral ore export ban that came into force in January this year, created a significant supply gap for China to fill. Wood Mackenzie believes the ban could be transformative to the global bauxite market in the longer term, but in the short to medium term the impact will be less significant due to swollen stockpiles and source diversification. Julian Kettle, Head of Metals and Mining Research for Wood Mackenzie explains: "China is the main global player in the aluminium market representing between 40% of supply and 60% of demand. Our most recent forecasts indicate that global alumina refinery production will rise to almost 140Mt by 2018, which means we'll see bauxite demand rise by almost 80Mt to 350Mt. With China's alumina demand set to increase so sharply, there will be huge implications for bauxite demand. We estimate China will need access to as much as 240Mt of bauxite by 2030 and as it only produced 72Mt domestically in 2013, huge uncertainty remains over the import versus domestic supply mix."
So where will China now source its bauxite from? Undoubtedly if Indonesia sticks to the ban in the longer term, China will have to look to alternative import sources or develop new mines domestically. However Wood Mackenzie suggests that China has in fact been making moves to diversify supply for some time in preparation for the ban. Carl Firman, Aluminium Analyst for Wood Mackenzie says: "In recent years we've seen China sourcing additional quantities of bauxite from a variety of other countries, most notably Australia and India - and while the alternative sources are not supplying huge volumes to China currently, in time they could do."
Wood Mackenzie believes that China has been actively increasing imports of bauxite since the mineral ore ban was first mooted in 2009. "This is a strategic move by China to ensure it can firstly meet the direct needs of the coastal aluminium refineries it's built up over the years, but secondly in preparation for the ban coming into force. We estimate that China has accumulated more than a year’s worth of bauxite supply. This works out at about 40Mt, or four-fifths of the entire volume of bauxite exported by Indonesia in 2013," Mr Firman adds.
Mr Kettle asserts: "Ultimately China's vast bauxite stock piles mean that in the short-term at least, there won't be any immediate impact on metal production. This strategic effort on China's part has ensured the breathing space required to either develop new bauxite mines domestically, or establish new sources of supply through imports."
Wood Mackenzie suggests one viable option that China is exploring is the utilisation of coal fly ash. "By investing in the development of new technology to extract alumina from the by-product (which occurs when burning coal for power generation) China could significantly reduce its bauxite requirement, but then again if it doesn't produce enough, it will still have to explore other options," Mr Kettle adds.
There are plenty of opportunities to develop bauxite production domestically and elsewhere in the world, and Wood Mackenzie suggests that three major basins in Guinea, Australia and Vietnam could more than meet China’s needs, but there are significant challenges to be overcome. Mr Firman cautions: "Is China going to put all of its eggs in three baskets – its history of diversifying supply would suggest otherwise."
"China does have options, but they come at a price. Developing new bauxite sources in other parts of the world will require significant investment as host governments don't just want mines - they want added value in the form of refineries and smelters. There are also the high cost hurdles of resource nationalisation, surrounding politics and developing infrastructure that China will have to negotiate in order to establish new trade routes. The big question is, will China look to these alternative sources and significantly increase imports or will it develop its own domestic resources to meet its insatiable demand? One thing that is for sure is that there are lots of opportunities for host governments open for China's business." Mr Firman offers in closing.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The University of Queensland
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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