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Wednesday, 23 April 14
EUROPE WOULD BE HARD PRESSED TO REPLACE RUSSIAN GAS, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
 A ban on Russian gas imports to the EU would cause substantial disruption to Europe's economy and industry, Fitch Ratings says. In the immediate aftermath, the region would suffer from gas shortages and high prices due to its limited ability to reduce demand, source alternative supplies and transport gas to the most affected countries. A surge in gas prices after a ban would probably also have knock-on effects on electricity, coal and oil prices. Industry would bear the brunt of supply shortages as household demand would be given priority.
A lengthy ban on Russian gas is a low-probability, but high-impact scenario. Russia supplies around 27% of Europe's gas and, given the high cost a ban would impose on all sides, we believe it would take a severe deterioration in the Ukraine crisis for it to happen. A temporary disruption just affecting gas supplies via Ukraine is a more likely scenario, for which Europe is better prepared due to high reserves and the recent opening of a new pipeline from Russia to Germany.
In the event of a lengthy ban imposed by either Europe or Russia, gas-intensive sectors such as steel and chemicals would be most affected. This would accelerate the closure or mothballing of capacity that is suffering from low profitability due to competition from low-cost energy jurisdictions such as the US or Middle East. In particular, issuers without geographic and product diversification would be most at risk of adverse rating action.
In 2013 Russia supplied 145bcm of gas to Europe, which would have great difficulty in sourcing alternative supplies. Increased European gas production and North African piped gas could offset a small proportion of this. Tapping into the global LNG market would yield limited volumes as Europe's Russian gas demand equates to nearly half of the world's LNG production, which is already mostly tied to long-term supply contracts. Hence, gas and other energy prices could surge.
In theory, Europe has plenty of unused LNG regasification capacity, which could help replace some Russian supplies. But the majority of plants are located in Southern Europe and the UK, far away from the Central and Eastern European countries that are most reliant on Russian gas. The European gas networks suffer from bottlenecks, which limit the ability to transport gas across borders.
Demand reduction initiatives would only be of limited benefit. Japan was able to reduce power demand by 4.7% following the Fukushima disaster, but this was partly weather-related and achieving that level of reduction across 28 countries with their own agendas and exposures would be far harder.
For more details on the impact that a ban on Russian gas would have on Europe, please see the report "Living Without Russian Gas - Replacing Russian Gas in the Short-term" published today and available from www.fitchratings.com. The report is the first in a series that will examine the potential impact on European utilities and how Europe could reduce its energy reliance on Russia in the longer term.
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Wednesday, 15 January 14
INDONESIAN MINING LAW AVERTS BOP PRESSURE, RISKS REMAIN, FITCH SAYS
The last-minute intervention at the weekend by Indonesia's politicians to avert a significant disruption of mining activity and exports, should lim ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
Q3 AND Q4 INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS DECLINE MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost $ 1.23 pmt month on month on Friday 10 January 2014. T ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
PANAMAX: PACIFIC - REMAINED QUIET; ATLANTIC - CONTINUED THEIR RETREAT
COALspot.com: The holiday hangover seems well underway for the Dry Bulk market that saw more ground being lost this past week. The BDI has closed of ...
Tuesday, 14 January 14
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FALL 18.28 %
COALspot.com: In the week ended January 13, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2.67 ...
Monday, 13 January 14
INDONESIAN ORE BAN TO HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINESE ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS, FITCH RATINGS SAYS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says today that Indonesia's ban on exports of unprocessed mineral ore will have limited impact on Chinese aluminium pro ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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