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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL TRADE CONTINUES TO HEAD EAST - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The global coal trade, once concentrated in the Pacific and Atlantic basins, is undergoing a significant transformation, as highlighted in the Inte ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
COAL CARGOES: AVOIDING EXPLOSION AND SELF-HEATING - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Despite its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, global coal consumption climbed to an all-time high in 2022 and is ...
Tuesday, 02 January 24
SINOPEC FORECASTS CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK AROUND 2025 - REUTERS
China Petrochemical Corp, or Sinopec, expects coal consumption to peak around 2025 at 4.37 billion metric tons, the state energy group said in an o ...
Thursday, 07 December 23
CHINA TO SET UP COAL PRODUCTION RESERVE TO STABILISE PRICES - REUTERS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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