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Thursday, 20 February 14
LENGTHY DELAYS TO PANAMA CANAL EXPANSION POSE GLOBAL TRADE RISKS; US COAL PRODUCERS TO GREATLY BENEFIT ONCE COMPLETE, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
 Wood Mackenzie expects the recent cost overrun disputes around the Panama Canal expansion to be resolved with limited disruption due to the significance of the Canal to global trade. Significant disruptions will crimp profitability for US LNG producers, create a tighter LNG shipping market and affect the US Gulf Coast petrochemical industry.
"Given the enormous strategic and financial importance of the Canal to Panama, we expect the gridlock to be resolved," says Andrew Buckland, Senior LNG Shipping Analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "If the delays last 6 –12 months, it will have limited impact, as trade will carry on much as it does now, but further delays threaten the investments of a significant number of groups that are set to benefit from expanded capacity on the waterway."
The expansion will benefit users depending on the position of their ports in relation to the canal, particularly the US, whose cargo accounts for 65% of total cargo moved through the canal.
"When completed, US coal suppliers will see some of the greatest benefits from the expansion as they will realise substantial cost and time savings, even when compared with Colombian and Venezuela suppliers. The shortening of the route to Asian markets will result in greater opportunities," added Jaime Correal, Senior Coal Markets Analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
Wood Mackenzie's cross-sector analysis highlights the possible impact of further delays for coal, gas and oil trade:
Coal Industry
- If the canal expansion is further delayed, Australia and Canada could grow its market share in the Asia Pacific, delaying the opportunity for US Gulf coal suppliers to benefit from the expansion.
- US Gulf coal suppliers can achieve savings of about US$4.72 per tonne ($/t) on ocean freight rates using capesize vessels through the Panama Canal when compared with a routing of the same size vessel via the Cape of Good Hope and Sunda Straits. The Canal will save 9.7 days and the cost savings will increase trade of thermal and metallurgical coal from the US to Japan, Vietnam and eventually China via US Gulf Coast ports.
- US suppliers will become more efficient into countries located in the Pacific Coast of South America, especially Chile where Colombian producers have traditionally dominated the coal market.
- Although the expanded canal will accommodate capesize vessels, cargo weight will be limited to less than 140,000 payable load tonnes, which will restrict the passage of fully loaded vessels.
- US coal exports from the US East coast to China will lose the opportunity of capturing additional market share in China and South America.
- The trip to China from the East coast via the Panama Canal cuts 6.2 days and can help to realize savings of US$0.89/t assuming time charter rates of US$60,000/day for a capesize vessel
LNG Industry
- LNG is not currently traded through the Panama Canal as most LNG vessels are too wide to fit through the locks. The expansion project will allow all but the very largest LNG ships to use the Panama Canal.
- A delay until early 2016 will impact the first US Gulf LNG exports from Sabine Pass. This will impose a higher shipping cost to target markets in Asia as ships will need to take a longer route via the Cape of Good Hope. However, the differential between US and Asian gas prices will still make the trade profitable and initial volumes will be small as the project ramps up.
- The LNG shipping market will be tighter (with higher spot-market freight rates) than it would otherwise have been as volumes from Trinidad and the USA will have to travel the long way round to Asia. The LNG shipping market is expected to weaken between now and 2016 as new ships are delivered to the market before new capacity comes on-stream.
Oil Industry
- We do not expect there to be any impact on Venezuelan crude exports to China: Trade will continue to be more cost effective in Very Large Container Carriers (VLCCs) that are too big to fit through the expanded canal.
- Supports higher product prices in Chile and exposes US exports to higher shipping costs.
- Supports product exports via alternate routes.
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is a global leader in commercial intelligence for the energy, metals and mining industries. We provide objective analysis and advice on assets, companies and markets, giving clients the insights they need to make better strategic decisions. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Thursday, 25 January 24
THE RED SEA ESCALATION IMPLICATIONS ON GLOBAL SEABORNE TRADE - MARIA BERTZELETOU
In recent days, discussions have intensified about the potential impact on the seaborne trade and ton-miles due to the evolving dynamics of market ...
Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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