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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Friday, 06 September 24
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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