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Friday, 13 December 13
HARD COAL : VOLUMES POSSIBLY AT RECORD-BREAKING HIGH; PRICES POSSIBLY AT A RECORD-BREAKING LOW - VDKI
 Press Release : World Hard Coal Market 2013: volumes possibly at record-breaking high, prices possibly at a record-breaking low. German and UK imports are up. The VDKi welcomes the coalition agreement on the energy turnaround as a step in the right direction.
Verein der Kohlenimporteure e.V. (VDKi) has submitted its initial estimates for the world hard coal market and the German and European hard coal import market for the whole of 2013, based on a data analysis up to the end of October 2013.
World economic growth has slowed in 2013, but trading in coal has continued to increase.
Year-on-year world economic growth has slowed down again. According to the latest announcements by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the economy has grown year-on-year by 2.9% in real terms. This is 0.3% less than in the previous year. In the euro zone, growth in gross domestic product (GDP) fell in the same period from 2.8% to 1.6%. The industrialised countries of Germany and France accounting positively for 0.5% and the latter for 0.2% of increase, whilst Italian, Dutch and Spanish GDP growth fell by 1.8% and 1.3% respectively.
The growth in hard coal output (coking coal and steam coal) has lost impetus and will not increase by more than 2–3% worldwide by the end of the year. China in particular has reduced hard coal output, whilst coking coal production in Australia and steam coal production in Indonesia and Russia have expanded, sometimes considerably.
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The seaborne hard coal trade (steam coal only) will peak at around 850 million tonnes, according to VDKi calculations, thus increasing by just 3% and reaching a new high overall. China is primarily responsible for the rise, as it increased its imports from Australia and Indonesia in the first half of the year, due to the favourable prices on the world market. Its imports during the first six months were thus up 10% year-on-year. However, economic growth slowed in the second half of the year and an import tax was imposed on low-calorific brown coal. The effect of this cannot yet be estimated, but the VDKi is assuming that China’s steam coal imports will exceed the previous year’s level in 2013.
However, there were major shifts among exporting nations. In all likelihood, the following countries will be able to increase their exports as follows:
- Indonesia by +30 million tonnes or about 12%, to a total of 330–340 million tonnes;
- Australia by about +20 million tonnes or 11% to 180–190 million tonnes, and:
- Russia by 5 million tonnes or about 5% to 114 million tonnes.
In contrast, exports of steam coal from Columbia will fall by 5 million tonnes, due to strikes at various mines and logistical restrictions at the beginning of the year, from South Africa by 3 million tonnes and from the USA by 4 million tonnes.
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Europe and Germany
A slight increase in coal imports in the EU has been perceptible in the last two years, particularly in the UK, Italy, Spain and Germany. Falling hard coal production in Germany, Spain and England has been compensated by an increase in imports. Spain will import about 6 million tonnes less steam coal in 2013, due to increased electricity generation from renewables and the weak economy. Italy will return to the 2012 level.
The long winter in Europe and the lower clean dark spread (costs of coal, freight and CO2 certificates), which has long worked in favour of power generation from coal to a greater or lesser extent, in comparison with the clean spark spread (costs for gas, transport and CO2 certificates) encourages power generation from coal in Europe. Electricity is then frequently exported to highly gas-dependent countries such as the UK or the Netherlands. The Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft (BDEW) correspondingly estimates gross electricity generation in Germany at 635 TWh in 2013 (2012: 628 TWh), with 61.8% coming from conventional sources (previous year 61.5%).
Germany’s electricity exports to its immediate neighbours rose significantly in the first three quarters of 2013. On balance (exports minus imports), 43% more electricity (19.9 million kWh) was exported than in the same period in 2012 (13.9 TWh).
All this took place against a background of a growing proportion of power from renewable sources, which grew from 22.7% to 25.9% during the first three quarters of 2013.
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The VDKi estimates hard coal imports into Germany as follows in 2013:
Hard coal imports into Germany rose by 16% or 5.5 million tonnes to 38.4 million tonnes in the first nine months. Extrapolating this figure for 2013 means that Germany will import more than 50 million tonnes of hard coal this year, with 38 million tonnes destined for power stations, 10 million tonnes for the iron and steel industry and 3 million tonnes for coke. This would be a new record and would confirm the VDKi’s mid-year forecast. Germany imported about 8 million tonnes of steam coal in the third quarter.
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The Energy Balance Working Party (AGEB) estimates hard coal consumption in 2013 as follows:
- A rise of 8.2% in hard coal consumption for electricity generation to 30.5 million TCE;
- A reduction of 5.6% in hard coal consumption by the steel industry, due to the modest economic situation.
Managing Director Dr Erich Schmitz commented:
"The figures prove that modern, highly-efficient hard coal-fired power stations are indispensable for the security of supply within the scope of the energy turnaround and must have a firm place in the future too. However, their cost-effectiveness is under serious threat from the unrelenting expansion of renewables and the resultant distortions on the German wholesale electricity market. The new federal government must find a remedy, if a serious number of power station closures are to be avoided."
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The USA, Russia, Poland and South Africa have increased their exports to Germany. The USA will probably displace Columbia as the second-largest coal exporter after Russia in 2013.
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World market prices generally continued to fall. They reached their current record low of just over US$73/t cif ARA in the middle of the year. A slight price recovery has been evident since September. At the end of November 2013, hard coal price reached about US$84/t cif ARA, but was still 6% below the previous year’s price (US$89.53). The strengthening of the euro against the US dollar produced further pricing advantages in the euro zone. The average price free German frontier (BAFA price) was thus €75.64 TCE or €64.83/t in the third quarter of 2013.
The VDKi regards the power station section of the coalition agreement as a step in the right direction.
Part of the section dealing with energy makes extensive reference to the “new role for conventional power stations”. Hard coal-fired power stations are regarded as an “indispensable part of the energy mix for the foreseeable future”. The VDKi strongly supports the basic heads of agreement under which the market is to retain the necessary capacity in the long term. This includes the development of a capacity mechanism, alongside the further development of a generation reserve using tendering strategies or the short-notice availability of reserve generation capacity under the Reserve Power Station Order. The explicit inclusion of the capacity market in the coalition agreement, to be developed in the medium term, repeatedly demanded by the VDKi, to be configured in accordance with European law, open to technology and not discriminate against any primary energy resource, is a matter of energy industry necessity and places the necessary emphasis on security in the target constellation of a secure, affordable, environmentally- and climate-friendly energy supply.
However, from the point of view of the VDKi, these fundamental positions must now be translated into specific legislative proposals very quickly. The VDKi has done essential research work with its Prognos report and will make a constructive contribution to further discussions about the configuration of capacity markets.
- Verein Der Kohlenimporteure E.V. (Vdki) - Germany Coal Importers Association -
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Monday, 24 June 24
PHILIPPINES COAL SUPPLY ENOUGH UNTIL 2030 - PHILSTAR GLOBAL
The country’s existing coal-fired power plants are sufficient to ensure enough base load capacity in the next six years, Energy Secretary Rap ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEXTDECADE, SAUDI ARAMCO SIGN 20-YEAR LNG SUPPLY DEAL - REUTERS
U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) provider NextDecade has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco 2222.SE to supply 1.2 million tonnes per ...
Friday, 14 June 24
NEWBUILDING PRICES CLIMB 3% TO HIGHEST LEVEL IN 16 YEARS - NIELS RASMUSSEN
“Since the start of the year, newbuilding prices have risen 3% to their highest level since 2008. Compared to their most recent low in late 2 ...
Friday, 14 June 24
INDIA TARGETS HIGHER DOMESTIC COAL PRODUCTION, REDUCED IMPORTS: GOVT - REUTERS
India wants to reduce coal imports and increase domestic production, federal coal minister G. Kishan Reddy said on Thursday.
The cou ...
Thursday, 13 June 24
US LNG TO ASIA FOR POWER GENERATION EXPECTED TO CUT EMISSIONS VERSUS COAL - RYSTAD ENERGY
The value-chain emissions of liquified natural gas (LNG) are lower on average than for coal-fired power generation, even when the fuel is shipp ...
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- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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