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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Tuesday, 28 January 14
RESOURCE NATIONALISM OR PROTECTIONISM FOR THE MINING AND EXTRACTIVES INDUSTRY - JOHN WHITTAKER & MICHAEL SWANGARD
Resource nationalism or protectionism for the mining and extractives industry as well as soft commodities sector and the oil industry.
‘Res ...
Tuesday, 28 January 14
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS RETREAT TO OLD 'HABITS', REFUSING TO DEMOLISH OLD VESSELS, THREATENING MARKET RECOVERY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
If one thing is clear as we reflect on the 2013 shipping markets, it's that ship owners took advantage of low prices, in order to acquire newer ton ...
Monday, 27 January 14
MERCATOR SINGAPORE REPORTS 52% INCREASE IN EBITDA FOR Q3 FY 2014 AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS QUARTER
COALspot.com: Mercator Lines (Singapore) Limited, a leading Indian-owned international dry bulk shipping company that operates a fleet of fourteen d ...
Monday, 27 January 14
13TH CLEAN COAL FORUM 2014
COALspot.com: (Press Release) - Produced by CDMC Events, The 13th Clean Coal Forum 2014 will be held on June 12 &13 2014 in Beijing, China. We a ...
Monday, 27 January 14
Q3 & Q4 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO REMAIN WEAK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery lost 4.45 percent month on month and closed at US$ 79.05 per mt as on Frid ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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