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Thursday, 12 December 13
DRY BULK MARKET RATES FOR CAPESIZES TO REMAIN VOLATILE SAYS BIMCO
The dry bulk market has reached multi year highs this week, as the BDI is standing at the 2,300-point mark. In its analysis of the market, BIMCO predicted yesterday that the elevated level of Capesize Time Charter average rates will remain volatile and stay around USD 15,000-30,000 per day. Panamax TC average rates will stay in the region of USD 9,000-16,000 per day. For the Supramax segment, BIMCO forecasts freight rates in the USD 11,000-17,000 per day interval, whereas Handysize rates is expected to stay strong in the region of USD 9,000-12,000 per day.
According to the relative report, BIMCO noted that 2013 was a truly amazing year for Chinese iron ore imports. "A growth rate of 10.8% for the first 11 months as compared to the same period last year is solid. Evident also from the freight rate development in the Capesize market, the last 5 months have been exceptional, with 17.8% y-o-y growth for July-November. On top of that, coal imports (not all seaborne) have grown by 15.7% in January-October compared to the same period last year. As we move into a seasonally stronger part of the year for bulk trades, the November and December indications that are already visible point towards more strong numbers.
So far, we have not recorded any major impact on demand due to the announced 3% Chinese import tax on low calorific coal that should be in place now. Indonesia is expected to be affected by this to some extent, as almost all lignite imports into China originate from Indonesia".
It added that "as regards freight rates, the smaller segments of Handysize and Supramax have enjoyed an almost unbroken run of better earnings over a sustained period. Both segments are propelled forward by a strong Atlantic market, mainly driven by front-haul routes out of the US Gulf to Continental Europe and the North Coast of South America, mostly carrying grain.
Not since the middle of last year have we seen average Handysize rates above USD 10,000 per day. For Supramax, the stronger demand has meant average freight rates have gone from USD 10,000 per day to USD 15,000 per day. The 6-month TC rate has also gone up, indicating that the market does not believe this strength is about to instantly evaporate.
However, it will not last for very long if we use the same argument and look at the 1 and 3 year TC rates that have barely moved. When looking at Capesize TC rates, six months deals in the period market were quoted at USD 31,000 in September. As the market fell back during October to stabilise at the USD 15-20,000 per day interval during November, the breakaway in the short period market was neutralised. At the end of November, TC rates, regardless of duration, stood at the same level – indicating uncertainty about the future direction. FFA rates, on the other hand, are not quite as optimistic, but equally volatile when offering around USD 13,000 for a Q1-2014 contract in early December", BIMCO's analysts stated.
Supply
Meanwhile, in terms of tonnage supply, BIMCO said that "the fleet has now grown by 5.3% (55 million DWT) in 2013 with a further 7 million DWT still set for delivery in 2013. This means the full year fleet growth could hit 6% as the higher freight market has limited demolition activity. Since 1 July, just 6.3 million DWT has left the active fleet on that account.
Fleet growth in the Capesize segment has been going steeply South since the middle of last year, where the segment growth during the previous year reached 20%. Since then, the slow inflow of new tonnage in 2013 has left Capesize fleet growth at just 5% in October 2013. Panamax has been the fastest growing segment in 2013, but at a significantly lower peak level than the Capesize segment. It is more positive now for the Handysize segment, which has seen the fleet decrease in size this year as the demolition of 5.5 million DWT has offset the delivery of 5.3 million DWT.
The slowing trend in fleet growth will continue into next year and has not been wiped out completely by the hefty ordering activity we have witnessed in past two months – 136 new ships with a capacity of 13.3 million DWT. Amongst them were 20 VLOCs, 16 Capesizes and 24 Handysizes. Year-to-date contracting activity stand at 63.2 million DWT, this is on course to become higher for the full year than the combined bulk carrier contracting activity during 2011-2012" it said.
Outlook
For 2014, BIMCO expects that demand growth will range between 4½ and 6%, indicating that such strong growth will outstrip supply and bring about an improvement to the fundamental balance. According to BIMCO's head of shipping analysis, Peter Sand, "coal exports from the US have been growing since 2007. However, after a record-setting year in 2012, the numbers appear to be dwindling. Even though March this year set a record with 12.3 million tons, 7% higher than the record set in June 2012, it is not representative of the whole year. The exported total in the first nine months of 2013 is 7.5%, lower than that of the same time last year. Seen on a broader scale, however, the 2013 numbers are still around 100% higher than they were only 4 years ago. In combination with the long sailing distances that most US coal export routes hold, the trade has established itself as a key element in the market, also in the future" he said.
As such, "in the light of lower domestic demand for coal in the US due to the excess production of cheap gas, BIMCO expects US coal producers to become a mainstay in the Atlantic market. Down the road, we may also see coal exports from US West Coast ports.
Going forward, EIA expect US coal exports to remain elevated in 2014 too. Driven by the increased consumption of gas within the US at the expense of coal, producers opt for exporting to Europe and Asia. However, productions costs in the US require relatively high sales prices, and with coal being abundant, particularly in the Asian region, the potential seems to be capped for the near-term future. Despite slower Chinese GDP growth in 2014, commodity imports could very well stay strong. This is due to the factors of diversity in suppliers, lower commodity prices, and the lower quality of domestically produced iron ore and thermal coal", the report concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping
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Thursday, 30 January 14
JPU SETTLEMENT PRICE AS A BENCHMARK WILL DECLINE IN IMPORTANCE BUT REMAIN RELEVANT, SAYS WOOD MACKENZIE
JPU price will remain above spot, trending closer to spot till 2015 then increasing to 2035.
Japanese Power Utilities (JPU) are approaching a cru ...
Thursday, 30 January 14
PANAMAX MARKET IS SOFTENING ON LESS ACTIVITY IN BOTH HEMISPHERES - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
In the Atlantic rates have been slowly sliding but ows can still achieve decent money for TArv´s. USG positions still being fixed in re ...
Thursday, 30 January 14
TANKER PROFITABILITY IS THE 'MILLION-DOLLAR' QUESTION FOR SHIP OWNERS THIS YEAR - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The tanker market conditions are expected to remain challenging throughout the year for tanker owners, but even more pressing will be the issue of a ...
Tuesday, 28 January 14
GLOBAL COKING AND STEAM COAL PRODUCTION HAVE GROWN 2% TO 3% TO ABOUT 7.1 BILLION TONNES AS OF THE END OF 2013 - VDKI
COALspot.com (Press Release): Initial figures on the world hard coal market at the VDKi ((Association of Coal Importers - German) New Year’s R ...
Tuesday, 28 January 14
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS JUMP 13.75% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 27 January 2014, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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