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Wednesday, 11 December 13
BDI REACHED A PEAK OF YEAR RECORD OF 2,237 POINTS WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN MARKET CONDITIONS


Getting closer to the end of 2013, it is important that we have a review of the course the market has taken these past 12 months by looking at the BDI today and where it was this time last year. Last December, after having witnessed a small rally in the final quarter of 2012, the BDI had just managed to climb above 1,000 points. This level also proved to be the main psychological barrier for much of 2013, with the index remaining below this level up until late June.

It was not until September that we really started to see a change in market conditions and the BDI breaking free to reach a peak of 2,146 points in early October and then a more recent year record of 2,237 points reached today. This was therefore a significant change in market conditions and although the Index doesn’t reflect the physical market 100%, it provides a general upbeat approach, while at the same time it is certain that we no longer find ourselves in a market were rates are close to breakeven levels.

On the other hand, the sudden upward boom has created a lot of skepticism amongst players in the SnP market. This past month in particular, we have seen asset prices increasing considerably and Sellers’ price ideas shifting week by week. A good example of this is that of a 1999 Japanese blt Panamax which would have been sold at close to USD 9.5mill in January, while only a few days ago similar vessels where changing hands at around USD 14.5mill.

These large shifts in prices have created significant problems amongst certain potential Buyer. We are starting to distinguish two distinct types of buyers emerging in this market; the ones that believe that they missed the perfect timing and are in a hurry sometimes to even pay a premium for a vessel and those who are worried that periodically the market will dip back down to the levels we witnessed in the 1Q2013 weighing down on prices again.

2013 was very intense for the SnP market. Greek ship owners invested a considerable amount of money in both second-hand and new building purchases and they are continuing on the same path, despite the fact that prices have increased so drastically since the start of the year. It is also important to note that this was the year that Greek ship owners, even medium sized ones, put a lot of emphasis in new orders of  “eco type” vessels, , wanting to position themselves in the market so that they can hold a significant competitive advantage in the future.

What is most worth noting is that 2013 was also the year that a number of foreign funds turned their interest towards Greek ship owners. These funds were driven by the belief that it was the right time to invest, while at the same time they were attracted by the Greeks’ long maritime tradition, which provided a sense of trust and security. This is yet another factor which strengthened the SnP market and boosted activity despite the fact that freight rates could not always excuse the prices being achieved nor could Greek banks, traditionally a large supplier of Greek shipping finance, which lacked the ability to support most of these purchases as it once did.

In conclusion, we can say that the big winners this year were owners that took the risk and invested when the market reached low levels. Let’s all now hope that the positive trend will continue into 2014 so that these bets can turn into profitable investments, the return of which can be reinvested back into the market and feed through to even better times for owners. 
By George Iliopoulos, SnP Broker - Intermodal

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations |
research@intermodal.gr

Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis |
g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima |
e.tzima@intermodal.gr

Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.



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