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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 27 November 13
SHIP OWNERS ONCE AGAIN TURN TO DRY BULK CARRIERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners once again turned to more dry bulk carrier ordering over the course of the past week, as more and more appear convinced of the industry ...
Tuesday, 26 November 13
EWP INVITES COAL BIDS FOR 2014 - 2018 DELIVERIES
COALspot.com: Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) invited bids to supply 130,000MT of min 5,600kcal/kg (Sub)-bituminous Coal on NCV basis for March ...
Tuesday, 26 November 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS SLIP 22.62% W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 25, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2.26 ...
Monday, 25 November 13
THE SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP MOVEMENT IN YEAR 2014 IS STILL FAR FROM PROMISING
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 2.54 pmt month on month on Friday 22 Novemb ...
Sunday, 24 November 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY PRICE SHOWS A NEGATIVE TREND WEEK ON WEEK AND FLAT ON D-D
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 0.13 percept d-d on Friday 22 November 2013. The CFR South ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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