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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 15 January 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FALL BY 6.57% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 6.57 percept month on month and closed at US$ 78.90 per mt as ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
INDONESIAN MINING LAW AVERTS BOP PRESSURE, RISKS REMAIN, FITCH SAYS
The last-minute intervention at the weekend by Indonesia's politicians to avert a significant disruption of mining activity and exports, should lim ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
Q3 AND Q4 INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS DECLINE MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost $ 1.23 pmt month on month on Friday 10 January 2014. T ...
Wednesday, 15 January 14
PANAMAX: PACIFIC - REMAINED QUIET; ATLANTIC - CONTINUED THEIR RETREAT
COALspot.com: The holiday hangover seems well underway for the Dry Bulk market that saw more ground being lost this past week. The BDI has closed of ...
Tuesday, 14 January 14
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FALL 18.28 %
COALspot.com: In the week ended January 13, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2.67 ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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