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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research analyst, Eva Tzima, "since the beginning of 2013, there has been a lot of debate as for what the future might hold for the trade of coal. The majority of coal production is used to fuel coal-fired power plants in the form also known as thermal coal. Coal, which is today the source that feeds almost 40% of global electricity requirements, has been the fastest growing energy source since the beginning of the 21st century, ac-cording to the International Energy Agency. It’s been mainly on the back of developing economies, like those of China and India that the traded volume of the commodity has witnessed a rapid increase. With China being globally the biggest producer and consumer of thermal coal, the demand for the latter has been inextricably linked with that of economic growth in the world’s second largest econo-my. As the rate of Chinese economic growth has been slowing down, so has the rate of coal consumption, while at the same time, due to its non green nature, the popularity of coal as an energy source has been gathering less and less supporters worldwide", she noted.
Tzima added that "despite the fact that China has been sitting on trillions of tonnes of reserves and therefore local appetite for coal has been historically satisfied onshore, as of the end of 2008 the country’s coal imports have started to increase at a very fast pace. The big beneficiary of this trend was no other than the dry bulkers, as the majority of those imports is realized by seaborne trade. Last year alone the an-nual increase of imported amounts of coal into China touched al-most 60% compared to those of 2011. As we head into the final quarter of 2013 it seems that an even higher figure of imports will be printed, proving that the trend is still strong. A little less than one third of Chinese coal imports is currently being satisfied by Indonesian reserves, while other Pacific region countries like Australia and Vietnam also account for substantial portions".
According to Intermodal's analyst, "the question that naturally comes to mind is why turning to offshore supplies for coal when the commodity is plentiful right there in your court? The answer is simple; Price. The cost of producing and transporting coal domestically has been higher than importing it. But as the country’s imports have continued to rise and its economy has gone into a slower gear, Chinese stockpiles have also increased significantly, fact which in its turn has put significant pressure on local prices. Since January alone, coal prices in China have softened more than 15%. As local prices have been softening a lot of reports have surfaced warning about possible pressure on coal imports going forward. On top of that, the Chinese government, in its effort to pursue more environmental friendly policies, could also weigh down on the future quantity of coal cargoes imported. The energy targets initially set forth by the government, as part of its overall pollution control plan, included both a ceiling on the imported volume and use, as well as a floor on the quality of coal consumed in the coun-try, adding further to the negative sentiment around coal usage altogether", Tzima noted.
"So, will the trade of coal start burning low in the Pacific region? I would think that most probably not. On the one hand the infrastructure modernization needed, should the government keep pushing for lower emissions of CO2, will add on to the cost of Chinese pro-duction. This will be reflected on the price of locally produced coal, restricting the gap between domestic and international prices to narrow down to a point where imports would no longer make economic sense. On top of that, while local coal prices have been softening, the same has happened to coal prices globally and even at a higher degree, so the price incentive for Chinese demand to dis-tant itself from imports doesn’t appear to be there. At the same time what originally started as a very solid plan to cap imported quantities has slowly been revised to a less strict policy, which doesn’t seem as hurtful for imports as it was in its initial form. This revision shows that cheaper energy sources are likely to hold centre stage, as it seems quite possible that the Chinese government would chose to partly sacrifice its “Green” targets for its “Growth” targets. In fact while it has pledged to reduce the country’s coal usage to 65% of its total energy mix, a 2% reduction from what it is today, it hasn’t set a specific amount of coal consumption. This means that under the current plan, the Chinese will still allow for growth in coal consumption should the country’s energy needs continue to rise. But will they do? In my view the fact that the Chinese government has compromised with slower economic growth targets for a longer period of time, in order to ensure the sustainability of that growth, in itself is supportive of firm on-going energy consumption within the country. Following the path of slower but more sustainable growth, energy consumption should be maintained at its current growth levels rather than exhaust itself in the medium term follow-ing strong but short-lived periods of overconsumption.
So despite the fact that King Coal might be facing some opposition, it seems that the Chinese will continue to be supportive of both imports and consumption of the commodity. And unless dramatic action is taken by their government, imports should keep increasing in the next years. This will almost certainly be an increase at a slower rate, but an increase nevertheless, as cheaper options of the commodity will be still made available through seaborne trade in the Asia-Pacific region, allowing for coal to keep burning hotter for a longer period than what some might chose to think...", Tzima concluded
Research Analyst - Eva Tzima
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 21 January 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED SLIGHTLY MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended 20 January 14, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2. ...
Monday, 20 January 14
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP SEEN LOWER IN 2ND HALF OF 2014
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB) for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost $ 0.78 pmt month on month on Friday 17 January 2014. T ...
Monday, 20 January 14
THE CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL MARKET APPEARS TO HAVE LOST DIRECTION
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery lost 4.25 percept month on month and closed at US$ 79.48 per mt as ...
Sunday, 19 January 14
FREIGHT MARKETS SEE CONTINUED WEAK PERFORMANCE
COALspot.com: The market has continued to soften particularly in the far East/SE Asia sector.
The BDI was down 6 pct week on week, the index was ...
Friday, 17 January 14
US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN WEEK ON WEEK: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 18.3 million short tons (mmst) of co ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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