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Tuesday, 01 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET POISED FOR RETREAT ON CHINA HOLIDAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The start of a national weeklong in China as of Tuesday is expected to put a lid in the latest rally of the dry bulk freight market, as has always been the case in similar occasions. This trend has already been obvious, by tracking the latest couple of sessions of the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index. The BDI was down 43 points yesterday, to end at 2,003 points, still more than double than the level of this past summer. The Capesize market witnessed the widest losses, which again was to be expected, given that most of the Capesize business is coming out of China. The BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) was down by 114 points to 3,853. Marginal losses were again obvious in the Panamax market, while smaller ship classes fared better, with Supramaxes rising by 10 points and Handysizes by three points to 1,079 and 597 respectively.
Capt. Jitesh Jaipuriyar, Chief Operating officer with Emerald Maritime, Dubai, offered Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com) an insight, regarding this latest rally of the dry bulk market, which has been fuelled by factors both "upstream" and "downstream". In the upstream factors, Capt. Jaipuriyar, noted that "miners are not able to sell at higher costs as there are few “takers”. India and China, as one of the most prospective import economies, are unable to support high raw material prices due to currency devaluation and slow growth combined. However, a miner may not be able to feed supply at the same cost for long as it threatens the very survival. Thus, the importer is forced to pay for high raw material prices which eventually is directly correlated to BDI upswing and supports the rally", he stated.
Regarding downstream factors, Capt. said that "in the current scenario, any increase in prices of raw materials, shall force miners to pass on the rises to the end users, in order to maintain profit margins, especially if this trend continues for an extended period. For shipping to recover, then this period has to be extended. Does it mean that it would bring “Inflationary pressure” in emerging economies? Not necessary. This is because when pressure builds up on downstream, other “balancing factors” shall come into play" he says.
According to Capt. Jaipuriyar, at this stage "the following question arises, if the high raw materials cost shall be able to create a “derived demand” or not. What we see as of now may not be real derived demand but more of a “Pseudo Demand”. Pseudo demand emerges from the constraint of choices a company has when having contracted out spot rates. This will show increased demand through paying more for shipping of the materials. However, the fact remains that companies have to commit to long term contracts (LTCs) and soaring period rates would not allow them to contract ships at lesser Time-Charter equivalents. But LTCs can play ‘Wait and watch’ game. This again contributes to pool of “pseudo demand” to be capitalized later and would support the rally", he says.
BULLWHIP EFFECT & “DECOUPLING”
"Last month, A Capesize stem from Australia to China, cost USD 14 per MT whereas same when slit in two panamaxes, costs only USD 13 per MT. This is against the economy of scale. So, how does it happen? When the demand goes up, a producer goes for bigger volumes and Capes rate go high. Due to limited Capes, the demand for smaller sizes down the chain increases which in effect creates a ‘Bullwhip effect’ to drive the demand for ships and rallies BDI overall.
So, at some point of time, the economic principles “decouple” with existing demand and supply scenario and lead to speculations. This in turn brings in volatility in the market. But the end demand drives it in sustainable way in spite of creation of multiple peaks and troughs on the way.
ROAD AHEAD
There have been many attempts to forecast BDIs in past and will continued to be explored. However, interestingly, it appears that the accuracy of forecasts lies not in “correlation” but possible “negative correlations”. It is for the fact that a positive correlation is not mere a result of one factor but a combination of many. Under such circumstances, it may not be possible to substantiate a proper or perfect “weightage” to one factor or another. But, past shows that gold, CRB (Commodity research bureau index) and crude prices often indicate how the negative correlation is building up and may help forecast BDI for short runs, possibly.
Overall, market remains upbeat for positive growth as stockpiles of grains and coal and other major commodities remain high to be shipped across the geographies", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 17 October 13
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS DOWN 9.4% TO 25.96 MMT IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: China's August Imported coal volumes down 9.4% m-m but up 27% y-y, BNP said in its latest China Coal & Power report released on 1 ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
NEW STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN A RAPIDLY EVOLVING COAL INDUSTRY
The 12th Annual Coal Markets assumes even more significance as the industry seeks more market information, inputs on trade strategies, supply and de ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
CAPES: RATES DROPPED; PANAMAX: ADVANCED - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of straight weekly positive closings, the BDI has finished the week in the red. Monday started slow as holidays in the East ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or jus ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
KOSEP TO IMPORT 0.49 MILLION TONS OF 4600 NAR COAL FOR JAN - FEB '14
COALspot.com - Korea South-East Power Co., a Korean generator and distributor of electricity on behalf of five Korean Gencos intends to procure 490, ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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