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Tuesday, 01 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET POISED FOR RETREAT ON CHINA HOLIDAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The start of a national weeklong in China as of Tuesday is expected to put a lid in the latest rally of the dry bulk freight market, as has always been the case in similar occasions. This trend has already been obvious, by tracking the latest couple of sessions of the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index. The BDI was down 43 points yesterday, to end at 2,003 points, still more than double than the level of this past summer. The Capesize market witnessed the widest losses, which again was to be expected, given that most of the Capesize business is coming out of China. The BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) was down by 114 points to 3,853. Marginal losses were again obvious in the Panamax market, while smaller ship classes fared better, with Supramaxes rising by 10 points and Handysizes by three points to 1,079 and 597 respectively.
Capt. Jitesh Jaipuriyar, Chief Operating officer with Emerald Maritime, Dubai, offered Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide (www.hellenicshippingnews.com) an insight, regarding this latest rally of the dry bulk market, which has been fuelled by factors both "upstream" and "downstream". In the upstream factors, Capt. Jaipuriyar, noted that "miners are not able to sell at higher costs as there are few “takers”. India and China, as one of the most prospective import economies, are unable to support high raw material prices due to currency devaluation and slow growth combined. However, a miner may not be able to feed supply at the same cost for long as it threatens the very survival. Thus, the importer is forced to pay for high raw material prices which eventually is directly correlated to BDI upswing and supports the rally", he stated.
Regarding downstream factors, Capt. said that "in the current scenario, any increase in prices of raw materials, shall force miners to pass on the rises to the end users, in order to maintain profit margins, especially if this trend continues for an extended period. For shipping to recover, then this period has to be extended. Does it mean that it would bring “Inflationary pressure” in emerging economies? Not necessary. This is because when pressure builds up on downstream, other “balancing factors” shall come into play" he says.
According to Capt. Jaipuriyar, at this stage "the following question arises, if the high raw materials cost shall be able to create a “derived demand” or not. What we see as of now may not be real derived demand but more of a “Pseudo Demand”. Pseudo demand emerges from the constraint of choices a company has when having contracted out spot rates. This will show increased demand through paying more for shipping of the materials. However, the fact remains that companies have to commit to long term contracts (LTCs) and soaring period rates would not allow them to contract ships at lesser Time-Charter equivalents. But LTCs can play ‘Wait and watch’ game. This again contributes to pool of “pseudo demand” to be capitalized later and would support the rally", he says.
BULLWHIP EFFECT & “DECOUPLING”
"Last month, A Capesize stem from Australia to China, cost USD 14 per MT whereas same when slit in two panamaxes, costs only USD 13 per MT. This is against the economy of scale. So, how does it happen? When the demand goes up, a producer goes for bigger volumes and Capes rate go high. Due to limited Capes, the demand for smaller sizes down the chain increases which in effect creates a ‘Bullwhip effect’ to drive the demand for ships and rallies BDI overall.
So, at some point of time, the economic principles “decouple” with existing demand and supply scenario and lead to speculations. This in turn brings in volatility in the market. But the end demand drives it in sustainable way in spite of creation of multiple peaks and troughs on the way.
ROAD AHEAD
There have been many attempts to forecast BDIs in past and will continued to be explored. However, interestingly, it appears that the accuracy of forecasts lies not in “correlation” but possible “negative correlations”. It is for the fact that a positive correlation is not mere a result of one factor but a combination of many. Under such circumstances, it may not be possible to substantiate a proper or perfect “weightage” to one factor or another. But, past shows that gold, CRB (Commodity research bureau index) and crude prices often indicate how the negative correlation is building up and may help forecast BDI for short runs, possibly.
Overall, market remains upbeat for positive growth as stockpiles of grains and coal and other major commodities remain high to be shipped across the geographies", he concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 22 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SERVED 38 OCEAN GOING VESSELS IN A WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 0.64 per cent week on week to 3.21 million mt for ...
Tuesday, 22 October 13
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR MULTI GRADE COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO), a Korean electricity generator intends to procure 240,000 tons of multi grade coal for its Ta ...
Monday, 21 October 13
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR 2014 DELIVERIES SHOW A POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.02 percept M-M on Friday 18 October 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Sunday, 20 October 13
Q3'14 SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 61.80 PMT W/E 18 OCT' 13
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.93 percept month on month on Friday 18 October 201 ...
Saturday, 19 October 13
NICKEL ORE SHIPMENTS KEEP SUPRAMAX CHARTER RATES STEADY - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The futures freight market continued to go down which was reflected in the physical markets as well.
The BDI continued to be soft ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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