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Wednesday, 07 August 13
HANDIES : FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS LEVELS - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Broker's insight
by Konstantinos Kontomichis,
SnP Broker
Entering the most predictable month of the year, as expected the seasonal effects has pushed sentiment back into negative territory. As the Greek owners are enjoying their summer time off, the S&P market is falling apart. While few prospective buyers have stayed back in their office to grab any chances and possibly avoid competition while doing so, most seem to have postponed their interest till September in the hope of seeing a market that they feel will make more sense. One can say that the recent price inflation posted over the last two quarters in the Dry Bulk market and more specifically for panamax vessels, is an additional reason for some to switch over to a “wait & see” attitude at least until the slowest month (in terms of chartering) has past.
From the beginning of 2013, handy tonnages have faced the smallest fluctuations in values, reflecting the fact that they still the vessels holding the lowest risk exposure in the dry market. Supramax asset values were running on the high end, something which is quite reasonable though considering the fact that this size segment has been enjoying the best returns in the market over the last couple of years. On the other hand the poor rates, overwhelming delivery schedule and overall negative sentiment for Panamaxes during the second half of the previous year caused depressed sales in the sector. The cheapest deals took place, during the end of 2012 and the very beginning of 2013, providing the groundwork and sparking heavy competition amongst Greek cash buyers which resulted in the unexpected climb in prices.
The recent rally in asset prices which we witnessed was also driven by the appearance of funds and private-equity covering the gap left from the more cautious and now heavily regulated banks. Many were claiming “we are scratching the bottom” and their words translated to private investors as “rock bottom bargain prices”. Of course along the way several additional economic factors played their part in the underling reasoning. The bankruptcy of the Cypriot banking system, the instability of Greek financial institutions and the clouded economic policy of the European Union was enough to push investors to the “sea” as a much “safer” choice.
In all these “safer” decisions there seems to be little room for “profitable”. The above decisions are locked at the going charter rates. It does not make any sense at these levels as the actual earnings do not reflect the levels that ship prices have reached. It is no surprise that we have not only reached back to pre-boom long-term repayment periods for bank loans and even surpassing them. Owners are struggling, shipping is still looking like part of a falling domino structure while many fundamentals are still missing from the market such as financing, economic stability, strong world economic growth, slower supply growth etc. Waiting for a market comeback we have to remember there is always a 'Dummy variable”. No one can predict the future, and despite everything seeming “bearish”, there is no telling of the potential direction the market could end up taking.
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- )
With the exception of the Capes, the whole of the Dry Bulk market witnessed a further correction in rates on the face of slower activity in the Atlantic and poor positioning overall. The summer blues have continue to overwhelm market players and things are looking set for further decreases over the next couple of days. The BDI closed today (06/08/2013) at 1046points, down by 12 points compared to Monday’s levels (05/08/2013) and a decrease of 21 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (29/07/2013).
The crude oil market noted some correction, however overall demand has held fairly well especially when one considers that this is traditionally the slowest part of the year. Demand for Crude oil from the U.S. has now drop, leaving the market ripe for a drop though you never know in this sort of market. The BDTI Monday (05/08/2013), was at 618 points, a decrease of 32 points and the BCTI at 612, an increase of 5 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (28/07/2013).
Chartering
There was a hold in the rates drop for Capes, with the Atlantic basin showing some improved demand and fending off any further weakening for now. The Pacific was the real market support this week, helping cover much of the slack in demand left by a softer Atlantic and allowing for some temporary relief. With activity likely to drop further over the next couple of weeks especial for iron ore cargoes, August is likely to be a fairly poor performance overall and this current levels are unlikely to hold for long.
Continuing on from the week prior, Panamaxes lost further support this past week as the Atlantic drop further on the face of fewer inquiries coming in from ECSA. The Pacific on the other hand is in no state to cover the gap in demand and is likely going to feel further weakening itself. This overall slower activity has taken its toll on sentiment and it is likely that we will see the index close of this coming Friday well below the 1,000 point mark.
This slower activity in the Atlantic took its toll on Supras as well this week, as it now becomes more evident to what degree the demand from ECSA was holding the market buoyant these past weeks. There was some gains to be noted on other Atlantic basin routes such as Continent/US Gulf, however these were to insignificant to effect the overall picture. Handies were also finding it difficult to sustain their previous levels and have also seen a slight overall drop these past few days. The Pacific basin wasn’t looking very charming either with decreased demand for raw resources from China these past weeks and India still remaining fairly subdued, it looks as though it will be another gloomy August as usual.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 09 July 13
CAPESIZE: SHOT UP; PANAMAXES: NOT SO LUCK; SUPRAS: SLIGHTLY BETTER; HANDIES: SOFT - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com : June 2013 Recap
A renewed Capesize market this month (June 2013) was the cause for much of the overall noteworthy performanc ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
THE 11TH DEEP COAL PROCESSING FORUM 2013
Press Release : The 11th Deep Coal Processing Forum 2013 will be held in November Beijing China.
CDMC Events is pleased to announce that 11 ...
Monday, 08 July 13
ECO-FRIENDLY COAL FOR CHINA - VALUE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND VALUE FOR THE POWER GENERATOR - BY: LINDSAY JUNIPER
COALspot.com : January 2013 saw an episode of extreme particulate pollution in Beijing 35 times worse than the safe level recommended by the World H ...
Sunday, 07 July 13
FREIGHT MARKET IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT TO STABLE NEXT WEEK- VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market softened for the week ended 5 July 2013, and experienced a decline in all sectors, including BDI. Bulk dry Index d ...
Sunday, 07 July 13
COAL PRICES REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com – Coal swaps for the year 2014 indicate that, the pressure on coal prices will continue at least until next year. Ave ...
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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