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Wednesday, 07 August 13
HANDIES : FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS LEVELS - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
 Broker's insight
by Konstantinos Kontomichis,
SnP Broker
Entering the most predictable month of the year, as expected the seasonal effects has pushed sentiment back into negative territory. As the Greek owners are enjoying their summer time off, the S&P market is falling apart. While few prospective buyers have stayed back in their office to grab any chances and possibly avoid competition while doing so, most seem to have postponed their interest till September in the hope of seeing a market that they feel will make more sense. One can say that the recent price inflation posted over the last two quarters in the Dry Bulk market and more specifically for panamax vessels, is an additional reason for some to switch over to a “wait & see” attitude at least until the slowest month (in terms of chartering) has past.
From the beginning of 2013, handy tonnages have faced the smallest fluctuations in values, reflecting the fact that they still the vessels holding the lowest risk exposure in the dry market. Supramax asset values were running on the high end, something which is quite reasonable though considering the fact that this size segment has been enjoying the best returns in the market over the last couple of years. On the other hand the poor rates, overwhelming delivery schedule and overall negative sentiment for Panamaxes during the second half of the previous year caused depressed sales in the sector. The cheapest deals took place, during the end of 2012 and the very beginning of 2013, providing the groundwork and sparking heavy competition amongst Greek cash buyers which resulted in the unexpected climb in prices.
The recent rally in asset prices which we witnessed was also driven by the appearance of funds and private-equity covering the gap left from the more cautious and now heavily regulated banks. Many were claiming “we are scratching the bottom” and their words translated to private investors as “rock bottom bargain prices”. Of course along the way several additional economic factors played their part in the underling reasoning. The bankruptcy of the Cypriot banking system, the instability of Greek financial institutions and the clouded economic policy of the European Union was enough to push investors to the “sea” as a much “safer” choice.
In all these “safer” decisions there seems to be little room for “profitable”. The above decisions are locked at the going charter rates. It does not make any sense at these levels as the actual earnings do not reflect the levels that ship prices have reached. It is no surprise that we have not only reached back to pre-boom long-term repayment periods for bank loans and even surpassing them. Owners are struggling, shipping is still looking like part of a falling domino structure while many fundamentals are still missing from the market such as financing, economic stability, strong world economic growth, slower supply growth etc. Waiting for a market comeback we have to remember there is always a 'Dummy variable”. No one can predict the future, and despite everything seeming “bearish”, there is no telling of the potential direction the market could end up taking.
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- )
With the exception of the Capes, the whole of the Dry Bulk market witnessed a further correction in rates on the face of slower activity in the Atlantic and poor positioning overall. The summer blues have continue to overwhelm market players and things are looking set for further decreases over the next couple of days. The BDI closed today (06/08/2013) at 1046points, down by 12 points compared to Monday’s levels (05/08/2013) and a decrease of 21 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (29/07/2013).
The crude oil market noted some correction, however overall demand has held fairly well especially when one considers that this is traditionally the slowest part of the year. Demand for Crude oil from the U.S. has now drop, leaving the market ripe for a drop though you never know in this sort of market. The BDTI Monday (05/08/2013), was at 618 points, a decrease of 32 points and the BCTI at 612, an increase of 5 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (28/07/2013).
Chartering
There was a hold in the rates drop for Capes, with the Atlantic basin showing some improved demand and fending off any further weakening for now. The Pacific was the real market support this week, helping cover much of the slack in demand left by a softer Atlantic and allowing for some temporary relief. With activity likely to drop further over the next couple of weeks especial for iron ore cargoes, August is likely to be a fairly poor performance overall and this current levels are unlikely to hold for long.
Continuing on from the week prior, Panamaxes lost further support this past week as the Atlantic drop further on the face of fewer inquiries coming in from ECSA. The Pacific on the other hand is in no state to cover the gap in demand and is likely going to feel further weakening itself. This overall slower activity has taken its toll on sentiment and it is likely that we will see the index close of this coming Friday well below the 1,000 point mark.
This slower activity in the Atlantic took its toll on Supras as well this week, as it now becomes more evident to what degree the demand from ECSA was holding the market buoyant these past weeks. There was some gains to be noted on other Atlantic basin routes such as Continent/US Gulf, however these were to insignificant to effect the overall picture. Handies were also finding it difficult to sustain their previous levels and have also seen a slight overall drop these past few days. The Pacific basin wasn’t looking very charming either with decreased demand for raw resources from China these past weeks and India still remaining fairly subdued, it looks as though it will be another gloomy August as usual.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 17 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FELL 3.85% ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,860,149 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 15 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed governm ...
Tuesday, 16 July 13
TAKE - OR - PAY CONTRACTS CONTINUE TO INCENTIVISE AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS DESPITE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE CASH MARGINS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Australia's coal production has continued to grow, despite lower coal prices in 2013. Global investors and suppliers are therefore questioning whet ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT HAS REVISED DOWN ITS JULY BENCH-MARK COAL PRICE TO US$ 81.69 PER MT
COALspot. com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference dropped 3.75 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian government has revised down its owned coal ben ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDO COAL SWAPS ARE STRUGGLING FOR RIGHT DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Indo coal swaps are struggling to find the right direction. Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 d ...
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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