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Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
 COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed government's stance towards growth. As the first half of 2013 progressed, market pundits and analysts alike realized that the much trailed big and painful shift in China's GDP model is truly underway...
Any skeptics of the above claim, feel free to ask the Chinese banks who felt the wrath of government regulators last month as the cash crunch in China's interbank lending market has only further exposed the fundamental problem of its economic distortions. For policymakers who are still pondering whether to pursue restructuring or growth, the answer seems more obvious than ever: there can be no growth without restructuring.
Over the past 10 years China has relied on a development model that uses high debt towards large –predominantly state owned - companies to finance growth, with much of the capital invested in unproductive sectors such as property and financial products. Regulators seem to understand that sustainability cannot occur without targeting the problems of excess capacity and high debt through the encouragement/development of private enterprises. Support should only follow companies that can survive in a competitive arena and what better
industry to challenge the boundaries of international competition than shipping.
It is easy for shipping analysts and all other parties involved within the maritime industry to relate themselves with inefficiencies of Chinese finance; whilst “too big to fail” companies keep receiving finance and loans for over leveraged projects based on exuberant asset values, there are serious, conservative and cash rich private entities that are below the radar of most Chinese banks.
Clearly the fewer distortions in an economy, the faster the market can recover and adjust. As China is following the same route of most western economies in deleveraging to bring risks down, one must not forget that China is in a much better position now that the USA was 5 years ago; "Insurance companies, social security funds, foreign exchange savings and private savings are all sources that could be tapped to meet the demand for capital".
Eventually, some measures, including the intensified property tightening campaign, new rules to curb misuse of public funds and the exit from some previous stimulus policies, have taken their toll on growth and whilst analysts argue this is only for the short term, it remains to be seen what the nett effect will be for the long run. Whilst many “western” reports have once again taken their typical stance of overly dramatizing the position of the Chinese economy, we must not forget that policymakers in China were the ones who shed light on these issues and look determined in carving the path for future sustainable growth.
My intention to spend more space and analyze my ideas about the need for growth-even at slower pace-in China was abruptly hushed by news this morning that the government of Enrique Pepa Nieto, the President of Mexico has announced its new six-year plan to invest $316bn in new roads, railways, telecoms, infrastructure and significant port overhauling... rings any bells???
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk index was back on the rise this week as both Capes and Panamaxes gained from firmer activity in the Atlantic basin. This may well be the last surge before the summer lull so owners are hoping that they can keep the momentum for as long as they can in the hope that they will keep rates fairly buoyant in August.
The BDI closed today (16/07/2013) at 1152 points, up by 1 point compared to Monday’s levels (15/07/2013) and an increase of 32 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (09/07/2013).
Things were not so positive this week in the crude oil carriers, were we saw a drop all around caused by the coinciding of decreased demand and firmer bunker prices. The BDTI Monday (15/07/2013), was at 611 points, up by 5 points and the BCTI at 574, an increase of 15 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (08/07/2013).
Broker's insight
by George Dermatis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Views expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com and subject to COALspot.com's disclaimer clause. We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc. To submit your articles please click here.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
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Monday, 06 May 13
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS CONTINUE
COALspot.com - The Indonesian government’s declared coal bench mark price has lost $ 3.23 / MT in May 2013.
The monthly coal pr ...
Sunday, 05 May 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL - MIXED TREND; API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL - POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average June 2013 delivery has gained 0.28 percent and API 8 CFR South China Coal shipment&nb ...
Saturday, 04 May 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA PANAMAX FREIGHT : FLAT TO SOFT - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The demand for iron ore picked up and its pushed up the cape size index by 7.86 pct. Cape index closed at 1,344 points. The BDI ...
Friday, 03 May 13
US PRODUCED 17.9 MILLION SHORT TONS (MMST) OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com - U.S. produced totaled approximately 17.9 million short tons (mmst) in a week (For the week ended April 27, 2013), EIA said in its lat ...
Friday, 03 May 13
SHIP OWNERS ARE INVESTING HEAVILY IN DRY BULK CARRIER NEWBUILDINGS ONCE MORE: IS THERE ANY RATIONALE? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that the dry bulk market remains heavily oversupplied and just as the orderbook of newbuildings had began to shrink, it seems that sh ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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