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Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
 COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed government's stance towards growth. As the first half of 2013 progressed, market pundits and analysts alike realized that the much trailed big and painful shift in China's GDP model is truly underway...
Any skeptics of the above claim, feel free to ask the Chinese banks who felt the wrath of government regulators last month as the cash crunch in China's interbank lending market has only further exposed the fundamental problem of its economic distortions. For policymakers who are still pondering whether to pursue restructuring or growth, the answer seems more obvious than ever: there can be no growth without restructuring.
Over the past 10 years China has relied on a development model that uses high debt towards large –predominantly state owned - companies to finance growth, with much of the capital invested in unproductive sectors such as property and financial products. Regulators seem to understand that sustainability cannot occur without targeting the problems of excess capacity and high debt through the encouragement/development of private enterprises. Support should only follow companies that can survive in a competitive arena and what better
industry to challenge the boundaries of international competition than shipping.
It is easy for shipping analysts and all other parties involved within the maritime industry to relate themselves with inefficiencies of Chinese finance; whilst “too big to fail” companies keep receiving finance and loans for over leveraged projects based on exuberant asset values, there are serious, conservative and cash rich private entities that are below the radar of most Chinese banks.
Clearly the fewer distortions in an economy, the faster the market can recover and adjust. As China is following the same route of most western economies in deleveraging to bring risks down, one must not forget that China is in a much better position now that the USA was 5 years ago; "Insurance companies, social security funds, foreign exchange savings and private savings are all sources that could be tapped to meet the demand for capital".
Eventually, some measures, including the intensified property tightening campaign, new rules to curb misuse of public funds and the exit from some previous stimulus policies, have taken their toll on growth and whilst analysts argue this is only for the short term, it remains to be seen what the nett effect will be for the long run. Whilst many “western” reports have once again taken their typical stance of overly dramatizing the position of the Chinese economy, we must not forget that policymakers in China were the ones who shed light on these issues and look determined in carving the path for future sustainable growth.
My intention to spend more space and analyze my ideas about the need for growth-even at slower pace-in China was abruptly hushed by news this morning that the government of Enrique Pepa Nieto, the President of Mexico has announced its new six-year plan to invest $316bn in new roads, railways, telecoms, infrastructure and significant port overhauling... rings any bells???
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk index was back on the rise this week as both Capes and Panamaxes gained from firmer activity in the Atlantic basin. This may well be the last surge before the summer lull so owners are hoping that they can keep the momentum for as long as they can in the hope that they will keep rates fairly buoyant in August.
The BDI closed today (16/07/2013) at 1152 points, up by 1 point compared to Monday’s levels (15/07/2013) and an increase of 32 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (09/07/2013).
Things were not so positive this week in the crude oil carriers, were we saw a drop all around caused by the coinciding of decreased demand and firmer bunker prices. The BDTI Monday (15/07/2013), was at 611 points, up by 5 points and the BCTI at 574, an increase of 15 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (08/07/2013).
Broker's insight
by George Dermatis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Views expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com and subject to COALspot.com's disclaimer clause. We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc. To submit your articles please click here.
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Monday, 24 June 13
INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR AUGUST 2013 DELIVERY GAINS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – Coal prices for immediate supply contracts have started moving up, but prices for next year supply shows a negative trend ...
Sunday, 23 June 13
BDI CROSSED ITS PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The BDI crossed the psychological barrier of 1000 points after many months and closed at 1,027 points, which were up by 14.11 pct wee ...
Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, i ...
Friday, 21 June 13
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 19.70 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 20 June 13
CAPESIZE : FINALLY A SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN RATES! - FEARNLEYS A.S
Handy
Atlantic market kept a steady curve from last week. US Gulf positions fetched tick above USD 21k for Cont/Skaw direction, and vessels fixed f ...
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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