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Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed government's stance towards growth. As the first half of 2013 progressed, market pundits and analysts alike realized that the much trailed big and painful shift in China's GDP model is truly underway...
Any skeptics of the above claim, feel free to ask the Chinese banks who felt the wrath of government regulators last month as the cash crunch in China's interbank lending market has only further exposed the fundamental problem of its economic distortions. For policymakers who are still pondering whether to pursue restructuring or growth, the answer seems more obvious than ever: there can be no growth without restructuring.
Over the past 10 years China has relied on a development model that uses high debt towards large –predominantly state owned - companies to finance growth, with much of the capital invested in unproductive sectors such as property and financial products. Regulators seem to understand that sustainability cannot occur without targeting the problems of excess capacity and high debt through the encouragement/development of private enterprises. Support should only follow companies that can survive in a competitive arena and what better
industry to challenge the boundaries of international competition than shipping.
It is easy for shipping analysts and all other parties involved within the maritime industry to relate themselves with inefficiencies of Chinese finance; whilst “too big to fail” companies keep receiving finance and loans for over leveraged projects based on exuberant asset values, there are serious, conservative and cash rich private entities that are below the radar of most Chinese banks.
Clearly the fewer distortions in an economy, the faster the market can recover and adjust. As China is following the same route of most western economies in deleveraging to bring risks down, one must not forget that China is in a much better position now that the USA was 5 years ago; "Insurance companies, social security funds, foreign exchange savings and private savings are all sources that could be tapped to meet the demand for capital".
Eventually, some measures, including the intensified property tightening campaign, new rules to curb misuse of public funds and the exit from some previous stimulus policies, have taken their toll on growth and whilst analysts argue this is only for the short term, it remains to be seen what the nett effect will be for the long run. Whilst many “western” reports have once again taken their typical stance of overly dramatizing the position of the Chinese economy, we must not forget that policymakers in China were the ones who shed light on these issues and look determined in carving the path for future sustainable growth.
My intention to spend more space and analyze my ideas about the need for growth-even at slower pace-in China was abruptly hushed by news this morning that the government of Enrique Pepa Nieto, the President of Mexico has announced its new six-year plan to invest $316bn in new roads, railways, telecoms, infrastructure and significant port overhauling... rings any bells???
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk index was back on the rise this week as both Capes and Panamaxes gained from firmer activity in the Atlantic basin. This may well be the last surge before the summer lull so owners are hoping that they can keep the momentum for as long as they can in the hope that they will keep rates fairly buoyant in August.
The BDI closed today (16/07/2013) at 1152 points, up by 1 point compared to Monday’s levels (15/07/2013) and an increase of 32 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (09/07/2013).
Things were not so positive this week in the crude oil carriers, were we saw a drop all around caused by the coinciding of decreased demand and firmer bunker prices. The BDTI Monday (15/07/2013), was at 611 points, up by 5 points and the BCTI at 574, an increase of 15 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (08/07/2013).
Broker's insight
by George Dermatis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Views expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com and subject to COALspot.com's disclaimer clause. We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc. To submit your articles please click here.
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Thursday, 27 June 13
US COAL EXPORTS BEATS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS AS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL COAL TRADE - BIMCO
The influence of American coal exports on seaborne transportation has grown significantly over the past decade. In 2002, the US exported 20.1 millio ...
Thursday, 27 June 13
HANDY : USD 12000 FOR SPOT COAL INDO/CHINA AND AROUND USD 13000 INDO/ECI - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Atlantic rates hold well. Continent to Far East is worth more than USD 14k daily whilst USG to Far East pay 23/24k a day. On the route from B ...
Thursday, 27 June 13
DRY BULK CARRIERS DOMINATE NEWBUILDING ORDERS AS SHIP OWNERS ARE ENCOURAGED BY LATEST FREIGHT RATE RALLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Newbuilding orders for dry bulk carriers were already high, compared to last year, prior to the latest rally of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which ha ...
Tuesday, 25 June 13
CAPESIZE MARKET TO REMAIN BULLISH SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been experiencing its long-awaited rally, with the Baltic Dry Index, the industry's benchmark rising to healthier levels fo ...
Tuesday, 25 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED OUT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,101,378 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 24 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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