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Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS


COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed government's stance towards growth. As the first half of 2013 progressed, market pundits and analysts alike realized that the much trailed big and painful shift in China's GDP model is truly underway...

Any skeptics of the above claim, feel free to ask the Chinese banks who felt the wrath of government regulators last month as the cash crunch in China's interbank lending market has only further exposed the fundamental problem of its economic distortions. For policymakers who are still pondering whether to pursue restructuring or growth, the answer seems more obvious than ever: there can be no growth without restructuring.

Over the past 10 years China has relied on a development model that uses high debt towards large –predominantly state owned - companies to finance growth, with much of the capital invested in unproductive sectors such as property and financial products. Regulators seem to understand that sustainability cannot occur without targeting the problems of excess capacity and high debt through the encouragement/development of private enterprises. Support should only follow companies that can survive in a competitive arena and what better
industry to challenge the boundaries of international competition than shipping.

It is easy for shipping analysts and all other parties involved within the maritime industry to relate themselves with inefficiencies of Chinese finance; whilst “too big to fail” companies keep receiving finance and loans for over leveraged projects based on exuberant asset values, there are serious, conservative and cash rich private entities that are below the radar of most Chinese banks.

Clearly the fewer distortions in an economy, the faster the market can recover and adjust. As China is following the same route of most western economies in deleveraging to bring risks down, one must not forget that China is in a much better position now that the USA was 5 years ago; "Insurance companies, social security funds, foreign exchange savings and private savings are all sources that could be tapped to meet the demand for capital".

Eventually, some measures, including the intensified property tightening campaign, new rules to curb misuse of public funds and the exit from some previous stimulus policies, have taken their toll on growth and whilst analysts argue this is only for the short term, it remains to be seen what the nett effect will be for the long run. Whilst many “western” reports have once again taken their typical stance of overly dramatizing the position of the Chinese economy, we must not forget that policymakers in China were the ones who shed light on these issues and look determined in carving the path for future sustainable growth.

My intention to spend more space and analyze my ideas about the need for growth-even at slower pace-in China was abruptly hushed by news this morning that the government of Enrique Pepa Nieto, the President of Mexico has announced its new six-year plan to invest $316bn in new roads, railways, telecoms, infrastructure and significant port overhauling... rings any bells???     

Chartering (Wet: Stable+  / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk index was back on the rise this week as both Capes and Panamaxes gained from firmer activity in the Atlantic basin. This may well be the last surge before the summer lull so owners are hoping that they can keep the momentum for as long as they can in the hope that they will keep rates fairly buoyant in August.

The BDI closed today (16/07/2013) at 1152 points, up by 1 point compared to Monday’s levels (15/07/2013) and an increase of 32 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (09/07/2013).

Things were not so positive this week in the crude oil carriers, were we saw a drop all around caused by the coinciding of decreased demand and firmer bunker prices. The BDTI Monday (15/07/2013), was at 611 points, up by 5 points and the BCTI at 574, an increase of 15 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (08/07/2013).

Broker's insight
by George Dermatis,
SnP Broker

Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations |
research@intermodal.gr

Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis |
g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima |
e.tzima@intermodal.gr 

Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various  sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.

Views expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com and subject to COALspot.com's disclaimer clause. We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc. To submit your articles please click here
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