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Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
 COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed government's stance towards growth. As the first half of 2013 progressed, market pundits and analysts alike realized that the much trailed big and painful shift in China's GDP model is truly underway...
Any skeptics of the above claim, feel free to ask the Chinese banks who felt the wrath of government regulators last month as the cash crunch in China's interbank lending market has only further exposed the fundamental problem of its economic distortions. For policymakers who are still pondering whether to pursue restructuring or growth, the answer seems more obvious than ever: there can be no growth without restructuring.
Over the past 10 years China has relied on a development model that uses high debt towards large –predominantly state owned - companies to finance growth, with much of the capital invested in unproductive sectors such as property and financial products. Regulators seem to understand that sustainability cannot occur without targeting the problems of excess capacity and high debt through the encouragement/development of private enterprises. Support should only follow companies that can survive in a competitive arena and what better
industry to challenge the boundaries of international competition than shipping.
It is easy for shipping analysts and all other parties involved within the maritime industry to relate themselves with inefficiencies of Chinese finance; whilst “too big to fail” companies keep receiving finance and loans for over leveraged projects based on exuberant asset values, there are serious, conservative and cash rich private entities that are below the radar of most Chinese banks.
Clearly the fewer distortions in an economy, the faster the market can recover and adjust. As China is following the same route of most western economies in deleveraging to bring risks down, one must not forget that China is in a much better position now that the USA was 5 years ago; "Insurance companies, social security funds, foreign exchange savings and private savings are all sources that could be tapped to meet the demand for capital".
Eventually, some measures, including the intensified property tightening campaign, new rules to curb misuse of public funds and the exit from some previous stimulus policies, have taken their toll on growth and whilst analysts argue this is only for the short term, it remains to be seen what the nett effect will be for the long run. Whilst many “western” reports have once again taken their typical stance of overly dramatizing the position of the Chinese economy, we must not forget that policymakers in China were the ones who shed light on these issues and look determined in carving the path for future sustainable growth.
My intention to spend more space and analyze my ideas about the need for growth-even at slower pace-in China was abruptly hushed by news this morning that the government of Enrique Pepa Nieto, the President of Mexico has announced its new six-year plan to invest $316bn in new roads, railways, telecoms, infrastructure and significant port overhauling... rings any bells???
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk index was back on the rise this week as both Capes and Panamaxes gained from firmer activity in the Atlantic basin. This may well be the last surge before the summer lull so owners are hoping that they can keep the momentum for as long as they can in the hope that they will keep rates fairly buoyant in August.
The BDI closed today (16/07/2013) at 1152 points, up by 1 point compared to Monday’s levels (15/07/2013) and an increase of 32 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (09/07/2013).
Things were not so positive this week in the crude oil carriers, were we saw a drop all around caused by the coinciding of decreased demand and firmer bunker prices. The BDTI Monday (15/07/2013), was at 611 points, up by 5 points and the BCTI at 574, an increase of 15 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (08/07/2013).
Broker's insight
by George Dermatis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Views expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com and subject to COALspot.com's disclaimer clause. We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc. To submit your articles please click here.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
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Sunday, 18 August 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP : ON POSITIVE DIRECTION ON DAY, WEEK AND MONTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery US$ 1.83 up month on month. The swap was moved positive ...
Sunday, 18 August 13
INDO - INDIA FREIGHT EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was up this week with the BDI gaining more than 10 pct due to strong Cape Sector.
The BDI was closed at 1,102 p ...
Friday, 16 August 13
US COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.10 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 15 August 13
CAPESIZE : TRENDS SOMETIMES SHIFT WITH NO PRIOR WARNING - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The influence of the summer holidays across Europe was felt in the Atlantic basin this week. Very little activity and a growing list of avail ...
Wednesday, 14 August 13
ANOTHER WEEK IN THE RED FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- )
Another week in the red for Dry Bulk carriers with the market losing further steam as fewer an ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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