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Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
 COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed government's stance towards growth. As the first half of 2013 progressed, market pundits and analysts alike realized that the much trailed big and painful shift in China's GDP model is truly underway...
Any skeptics of the above claim, feel free to ask the Chinese banks who felt the wrath of government regulators last month as the cash crunch in China's interbank lending market has only further exposed the fundamental problem of its economic distortions. For policymakers who are still pondering whether to pursue restructuring or growth, the answer seems more obvious than ever: there can be no growth without restructuring.
Over the past 10 years China has relied on a development model that uses high debt towards large –predominantly state owned - companies to finance growth, with much of the capital invested in unproductive sectors such as property and financial products. Regulators seem to understand that sustainability cannot occur without targeting the problems of excess capacity and high debt through the encouragement/development of private enterprises. Support should only follow companies that can survive in a competitive arena and what better
industry to challenge the boundaries of international competition than shipping.
It is easy for shipping analysts and all other parties involved within the maritime industry to relate themselves with inefficiencies of Chinese finance; whilst “too big to fail” companies keep receiving finance and loans for over leveraged projects based on exuberant asset values, there are serious, conservative and cash rich private entities that are below the radar of most Chinese banks.
Clearly the fewer distortions in an economy, the faster the market can recover and adjust. As China is following the same route of most western economies in deleveraging to bring risks down, one must not forget that China is in a much better position now that the USA was 5 years ago; "Insurance companies, social security funds, foreign exchange savings and private savings are all sources that could be tapped to meet the demand for capital".
Eventually, some measures, including the intensified property tightening campaign, new rules to curb misuse of public funds and the exit from some previous stimulus policies, have taken their toll on growth and whilst analysts argue this is only for the short term, it remains to be seen what the nett effect will be for the long run. Whilst many “western” reports have once again taken their typical stance of overly dramatizing the position of the Chinese economy, we must not forget that policymakers in China were the ones who shed light on these issues and look determined in carving the path for future sustainable growth.
My intention to spend more space and analyze my ideas about the need for growth-even at slower pace-in China was abruptly hushed by news this morning that the government of Enrique Pepa Nieto, the President of Mexico has announced its new six-year plan to invest $316bn in new roads, railways, telecoms, infrastructure and significant port overhauling... rings any bells???
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk index was back on the rise this week as both Capes and Panamaxes gained from firmer activity in the Atlantic basin. This may well be the last surge before the summer lull so owners are hoping that they can keep the momentum for as long as they can in the hope that they will keep rates fairly buoyant in August.
The BDI closed today (16/07/2013) at 1152 points, up by 1 point compared to Monday’s levels (15/07/2013) and an increase of 32 points compared to previous Tuesday’s levels (09/07/2013).
Things were not so positive this week in the crude oil carriers, were we saw a drop all around caused by the coinciding of decreased demand and firmer bunker prices. The BDTI Monday (15/07/2013), was at 611 points, up by 5 points and the BCTI at 574, an increase of 15 points compared to the previous Monday’s levels (08/07/2013).
Broker's insight
by George Dermatis,
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Views expressed herein are personal views of the author and not that of COALspot.com and subject to COALspot.com's disclaimer clause. We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining, shipping, etc. To submit your articles please click here.
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Thursday, 22 August 13
PANAMAX : PERIOD MARKET IS STILL BEING LED BY STRONGER SENTIMENT IN THE FFA'S - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
This week started slowly as expected. Indo biz now rate APS around 7k +60k to china and around 8k+80k to India. However, there are some ships ...
Wednesday, 21 August 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING - POSITIVE WINDOW FOR CAPESIZE OWNERS - PETER SAND
By: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
Demand:
“Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market” was what we wrote last time ar ...
Wednesday, 21 August 13
RATES FOR CAPES MOVED DECISIVELY NORTH THIS WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com - Right when the BDI seemed ready for another dive below the 1000 points level, the Dry Bulk market made significant comeback this week ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FALL 19.15 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 19.15 per cent week on week to 2.39 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
CAPESIZE RATES MORE SENSITIVE TO DEMAND - COMMODORE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
COALspot.com : Approximately 71.50 million tons of iron ore is now stockpiled at Chinese ports, 900,000 tons (-1%) less than a week ago, Commodore R ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
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