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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
 In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 21 May 13
NEWCASTLE PORT COAL SHIPMENTS SEEN FALLING WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,205,024 tons of thermal and coking coal for week ended 0700 hours 20 May 2013, Newcast ...
Sunday, 19 May 13
COAL PRICES ARE SLUMPING DUE TO WEAK DEMAND
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have gained 0.03 percent and API 8 CFR South China Coal shipment g ...
Sunday, 19 May 13
FREIGHT RATES TO REMAIN UNSTABLE AND VOLATILE - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com – The freight remained weak this week with all the segments down.
The BDI, the Baltic Dry Index is a number issued daily by th ...
Friday, 17 May 13
US COAL PRODUCTION CLIMBED 3.35 PER CENT WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com - U.S. produced totaled approximately 18.50 million short tons (mmst) in a week (For the week ended May 11, 2013), EIA said in its late ...
Thursday, 16 May 13
PANAMAX: THE FORWARD CURVE IS FALLING GRADUALLY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic market remained quiet. The USG-Feast was at USD 19k and Black Sea-Feast was at USD 11k. The Pacific market remained uncertain as ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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