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Wednesday, 10 April 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES SEEN MOSTLY STABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS WORLDWIDE
In its latest report, BIMCO forecast that for the coming six weeks, Capesize time charter average rates will remain subdued around $4,500-8,500 per day. The Panamax market is expected to hold on to recent gains and remain in the USD 5,000 – 10,000 per day range. In the Supramax market, BIMCO sees freight rates in the USD 7,000 – 11,000 per day, while Handysize rates are predicted to stay in the USD 6,500 – 9,000 interval on a daily basis.
According to the report, "the delivery pace is expected to come down as close to 25% of all the tonnage. BIMCO expects to see launched in 2013, has already been delivered during the first 11 weeks (20%) of the year. Should more than the expected amount of tonnage be built this will be a result of reduced slippage perhaps due to shipyard in dire need for cash paid down upon delivery. This is seen as plausible scenario but not our base-case.
For mysterious reasons the newbuilding prices for dry bulk tonnage seems to have flatten out in the course of the past 4-5 months whereas prices for tanker tonnage still seems to fade. This trend regarding dry bulk tonnage has been most significant for Capesize tonnage. This may have spurred some owners to “fish at the bottom of the market”, given some reason behind the recent Capesize order rush. From the demand side BIMCO expects “more of the same”, which is solid volumes in grains and coal that will eventually lift freight rates beyond the level of 2012. With Capesize as the exception, strong volumes seem to support higher rates in the three smaller vessel segments – not sentiments" BIMCO said.
In the supply side, the first 11 weeks of the year have seen the delivery of 17 million dwt, offset by 6 million dwt being recycled. "It took just 7½ weeks to deliver the same amount last year, but the slower delivery pace is not impacting the fundamental balance between tonnage demand and vessel supply quite yet. And the reason for this? It’s simple: following four years in a row with higher inflow of tonnage capacity outpacing demand, it does take a bit more than just a few months of market improvements to affect earnings significantly. But we are now for the first time in five years moving in the right direction.
Dry bulk demolition activity hasn’t been concentrated on any particular sub-segment. Just like the previous years, the average vessel sold for demolition was of 59,000 DWT. In 2013, the age has so far been 27 years which is about one year younger than last year. Bangladesh has taken the lion’s share of this, buying 2 million DWT paying around USD 420 per ltd,
which is 5% more than offered for the average dry bulk vessel sold for recycling", BIMCO said.
It added that "on the contracting side, CRSL records new contracts for 76 vessels of a total capacity of 7.5 million DWT. For some reason 30 Capesize vessels are amongst the new orders, as if the Capesize fleet was in desperate need for new tonnage. In 2012 a total of 31 new Capesize orders were placed. Bear in mind that the Capesize fleet has double during the past 5½ years – from 756 to 1,513 today, prior to that the doubling time for a much smaller fleet was 13½ years. Fortunately the launches of all these new orders are not expected before 2015. Of the recent Capesize orders, 75 percent have landed at Chinese yards and believed to be some kind of an ECO-design, with a still unknown improved fuel-efficiency. Taking some of the side-orders have been the 2012 Japanese merger of Universal Shipbuilding and IHIMU into Japan Marine United, which today holds the second largest order book amongst the Japanese yard groups - second only to Oshima Shipbuilding Co." it noted.
Meanwhile, in the demand-side of things, "the first couple of months have been challenging for all vessel sizes, but what was expected to become an extraordinary difficult year for Panamax owners has so far proven to be a somewhat positive surprise. Time charter equivalent earnings have crossed the thin red line and moved into positive territory beyond the point of just covering OPEX. Driven strongly by the South American grain season, the strong demand for tonnage has led to increased earnings as well as congestion around the key grain exporting ports in Argentina and Brazil. On the overall level Algeria, Iran and South Korea currently increase imports, whereas top importer, Egypt, slashed its demand due to tightening FOREX reserves and higher focus on domestic supplies.
Supramax earnings have also been lifted as a result of increased South American demand, whereas even a large demand for the iron ore and coal transporting sea-stallions, Capesizes have not been enough to support sustainable rates due to a massive supply of vessels in this segment. Earnings for Capesize vessels averaged last year USD 7,680 per day; at the poor year-to-date earnings of at USD 6,300 per day, the Capes continue to be impacted by the overhang of tonnage.
As the Chinese imports of coal reach record-high volumes, the question for ship-owners is: From where the bulk of the increased imports will be transported from? Nearby Indonesia has historically been the main trading partner with Australia coming in second.
In the last three months, the balance has tipped in favour of Australia, which is good news for the shipping industry, as Australian coal has to travel 50% longer. As a consequence, the tonne mile demand of Australian exports to China was almost double that of Indonesia’s in January and February 2013. Australia and Indonesia made up 61% of the seaborne tonne miles demand for coal into China in 2012. The low demand in February is primarily due to the Golden week.
In 2012, China imported 53.7 million tons of coking coal, and 180.8 million tons of thermal coal, making thermal coal the main contributor to seaborne import demand of coal into China. As the growth rates for the two types of coal were similar in 2012, the main growth factor came from the demand for increased power generation. Affecting the exports from Australia, the world’s largest dry bulk commodity exporter, this year has been weather-related issues around iron ore export ports, most of all Port Hedland, as well as the coal ports in the Eastern parts of Australia. Due to cyclone and heavy rain, importers have to some extent found themselves in need of seeking alternatives for the shortfall of exports from Australia. Unless importing steel mills and traders decide to run down stocks the adverse weather conditions can prove to be one of the supporting factors behind the climb in March earnings alongside the development in coal demand export origins" BIMCO concluded.
Source: Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 24 May 13
US'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.90 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Friday, 24 May 13
OPG POWER VENTURES OF INDIA LOOKING FOR 210,000 MT OF 4,200 GAR INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL
COALspot.com - OPG Power Ventures Plc (OPG) is an AIM listed (London Stock Exchange) and fast growing developer and operator of power plants in Indi ...
Thursday, 23 May 13
HANDY : THE ATLANTIC MARKET REMAINS UNCHANGED - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Atlantic market remains unchanged. USG-Feast rates were around USD 19k. Little change from last week in the Pacific, fewer stems and tonn ...
Thursday, 23 May 13
COLOMBIA SHIPPED 11.74 MILLION TONS OF THERMAL COAL IN Q1
COALspot.om - Colombia produced about 18,388,972.94 mt of coal for the first quarter of 2013.
Q1' 2013 coal production was around 21.42 p ...
Wednesday, 22 May 13
COKAL SIGNS JV WITH MDM, FOR BARITO RIVER BARGING
COALspot.com - Cokal Limited (ASX: CKA) has announced that it has entered into a 50:50 Joint Venture (JV) with Meratus Advance Maritime (MDM) one of ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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